National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1018 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024 SYNOPSIS... Widespread showers continue through early this afternoon, with a few thunderstorms also possible across the south. The widespread rain will shift south tonight into Sunday, though at least light rain or drizzle will still be possible. Dry weather returns Monday, with a warming trend leading to a more summerlike pattern by the middle of the week. NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1015 AM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Widespread rainfall continues through the rest of the morning and into early afternoon for the Eastern Shore and the Middle Peninsula/Northern Neck. - Additional showers possible this afternoon, with a chance of thunderstorms mainly south of the NC/VA border. Morning analysis shows high pressure (centered over Atlantic Canada) ridging S into the coastal Mid-Atlantic. Just to the E (offshore), expansive, but weak, low pressure continues to harmlessly spiral. In the upper levels, WSW flow continues ahead of a srn stream shortwave currently located over the mid-South. Water vapor imagery also shows a secondary impulse in the WV/srn PA vicinity. Along with a sfc boundary/weak sfc low, this upper disturbance is serving to focus moderate-heavy showers over eastern portions of the area. Radar shows the highest coverage over the peninsulas and Eastern Shore. PWATs along the coast are ~1.5in as of 14z mesoanalysis and model-derived soundings still indicate fairly deep saturation, so moderate to heavy rainfall within stronger showers will still be possible through the rest of the morning/early afternoon. However, flooding is not anticipated (except perhaps in isolated instances). There remains some uncertainty heading into the mid/late afternoon regarding coverage of showers and possible storms. For the nrn half of the area, not expecting much redevelopment due to lingering impacts from the morning rain/convection and cool low-levels from the NE flow. Some sfc-based instability may creep into far srn VA and NE NC which could favor storms. CAMs generally focus most of the heavier activity just S of our CWA and along a remnant Midwestern MCS boundary. The best chance for storms in our CWA would be just S of the NC/VA border and especially along the Albemarle Sound. SPC has a marginal risk for severe for these areas, but thinking is best chance for svr is well to our S given the meager instability (and decreasing) instability. Elsewhere, just expecting scattered light rain or showers and perhaps some drizzle. It certainly won`t feel like late spring with cloudy skies and highs struggling to get out of the low-mid 60s for most of the FA. Upper 60s or lower 70s are possible in interior NE NC and S and W of US-460. Scattered showers continue into tonight with the highest coverage over SE VA and NE NC. Overnight lows will be in the low-mid 50s under continuing overcast skies. Becoming breezy along the immediate coast with a tightening pressure gradient. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 325 AM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Low chance for showers across SE VA and NE NC Sunday, with dry weather elsewhere. High temperatures will remain below normal, though may warm into the 70s for northern portions of the area. - Partly to mostly cloudy skies and below normal temperatures Monday across coastal areas. Near-normal temperatures expected well inland. Drying out Sunday as weak low pressure gradually moves ESE off the Carolina coast. There may be quite a difference in weather Sunday across the area as drier air attempts to filter into from the north and the cooler maritime airmass persists across the SE and along the coast. Thus, we may see some clearing for northern portions of the area away from the immediate coast (especially in the later aftn hrs). In response to this potential, the guidance is trending up with temps across this area. Given looming uncertainty and the fact that these airmasses are sometimes hard to scour out, will blend the previous forecast`s highs w/ the NBM, which yields temps in the low 70s across the N (a couple degrees below NBM). However, temps could certainly be warmer w/ 75th percentile highs approaching the mid 70s. Highs likely to stay in the 60s in SE VA/NE NC and along the Atlantic coast (where it also remains breezy). PoPs also continue to trend down, with just slight chc for the srn half of the area (30% along the Albemarle Sound). Lows Sun night in the mid 50s. Low pressure gradually shifts offshore Monday, though an additional low may develop S of the upper feature offshore. High pressure also nudges south into the Mid-Atlantic. NE flow is still expected (breeziest across southern coastal areas), keeping temperatures below normal across the SE, and slight below normal elsewhere. The low levels dry out enough well inland, allowing temperatures to warm into the mid-upper 70s. Upper 60s are expected along the coast. The majority of the area stays dry with PoPs below 20% areawide. Lows Mon night in the 50s with some upper 40s possible well inland. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 325 AM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - A substantial warming trend is expected Tuesday through Thursday with mainly dry weather. - Thunderstorm chances return Thursday afternoon and again Friday afternoon, with some stronger storms possible. Low pressure gets pushed offshore rather quickly Mon night, with upper level ridging moving in by Tue. As such, much warmer temps are expected midweek, with highs Tue in the upper 70s/lower 80s inland and in the low-mid 70s at the coast. The warming trend continues Wed into Thu with mid/upper 80s making a comeback. An isolated shower is possible across the NW Wed night w/ a shortwave sliding through the ern Great Lakes. However, vast majority of the moisture stays well to our NW. There is decent agreement among the global models that a cold front will cross the area in the later Thursday/early Friday timeframe. Will have a chc of showers and storms over most of the area. CAPE fields from the GFS/ECMWF show impressive instability so could see some stronger storms. A little cooler behind the front to end the week, though will need to watch another disturbance ejecting out of the Plains Friday into Saturday. Depending on the track of the sfc feature, will again need to monitor for some stronger storms. Overnight lows will be in the 50s Tue night and 60s for the remainder of the week. AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 650 AM EDT Saturday... As of 11/12z, conditions continue to oscillate at all terminals. SBY is VFR, RIC has been bouncing across 3 flight categories, and ORF/PHF/ECG are mainly MVFR. Generally MVFR CIGs this morning and then IFR by the aftn today (SBY may stay MVFR for most of today). Coverage of showers may lower some later in the aftn, but IFR-LIFR CIGs and potentially some drizzle will keep flying conditions less than ideal. Degraded VSBY in rain/drizzle is also likely. Showers/storms redevelop late this aftn/evening, mainly S of the NC/VA border. Have therefore included VCTS at ECG from 22z-01z. E-NE winds are light this morning, with 5-10 kt winds prevailing for the remainder of the period. Outlook: At least some chance for showers (and flight restrictions likely) into Sunday morning, with the best chance at srn terminals. Mainly dry by Sun afternoon and night with a few lingering showers in the SE. Dry Mon-Tue. MARINE... As of 325 AM EDT Saturday... Key Message: - Increasing NE wind and seas for the weekend. Small craft advisories will go into effect for southern portions of the marine area later tonight. Weak high pressure is centered in vicinity of the Mid-Atlantic coast early this morning, with weak low pressure centered well inland and slowly approaching from the W. The wind in mainly E to NE at 5-10kt with seas 3-4ft. Low pressure will track ESE across NC today and become more organized off the Carolina coast tonight into Sunday, before very slowly pulling away from the coast through Monday. Meanwhile, high pressure slowly builds in from the N. The wind is expected to become E 10-15kt today, and then become NE by tonight into Sunday ranging from 10-15kt N to 15-20kt with gusts to 25kt S. Seas build to 4-5ft N to 5-6ft S (potentially 6-8ft if the wind reaches 20-25kt). SCAs will go into effect later tonight from Cape Charles S for the ocean, the mouth of the Bay, and the Currituck Sound. High pressure builds across the Mid-Atlantic coast Tuesday into Wednesday as weak low pressure lingers off the Southeast coast. High pressure slides offshore later in the week with the wind becoming SSW but remaining sub-SCA. Seas gradually subside to 3-4ft by Monday night/Tuesday, and then 2-3ft by midweek. A moderate risk for rip currents continues for today, with moderate for the northern beaches Sunday, and high for the southern beaches due to increasing NE flow and building seas. HYDROLOGY... As of 325 AM EDT Saturday... Flood Warnings remain in effect for Nottoway River near Stony Creek for minor flooding. Lawrenceville crested last night and has now fallen below flood stage. Stony Creek remains in flood and is expected to crest tonight. See FLSAKQ for additional information. Latest forecasts indicate rainfall amounts from today will lead to a secondary rise in water level late in the weekend/early next week, but that most places stay just below Minor Flood thresholds. Will still need to monitor as a slight over- performance would lead to additional flooding. TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 325 AM EDT Saturday... Tidal anomalies have dropped a few tenths of a foot across the middle Chesapeake Bay and tidal Potomac and Rappahannock Rivers in the wake of a modest ebb tide. Therefore, nuisance to minor tidal flooding is largely not expected during the next high tide cycle later this morning to mid-afternoon. However, astronomical high tides will gradually increase over the next several days, and this combined with increasing onshore flow will result in nuisance to minor tidal flooding later this weekend into early next week, particularly for the middle Chesapeake Bay and tidal portions of the Rappahannock River and southern shore of the tidal Potomac. AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Sunday to 1 AM EDT Monday for ANZ634. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Sunday to 7 AM EDT Monday for ANZ656-658. SYNOPSIS...LKB/SW NEAR TERM...AM/SW SHORT TERM...SW LONG TERM...LKB/SW AVIATION...SW MARINE...AJZ HYDROLOGY... TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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National Weather Service Wakefield VA
703 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024 SYNOPSIS... Low pressure pushes further offshore today. Mainly dry conditions prevail through early this afternoon, but widespread showers and a few storms return tonight through the weekend. Dry weather returns early next week. NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 440 AM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - Mild this afternoon for inland areas. Cooler temperatures expected along the coast. - Rain chances increase from west to east this evening into tonight, with locally heavy rainfall possible. A flood watch has been issued over portions of the Piedmont. - Showers continue heading into Saturday with below normal temperatures continuing. Surface low pressure remains offshore, though it is gradually weakening this morning. Temps are mainly in the upper 50s or lower 60s with mostly clear skies across inland VA. Along the coast, nighttime satellite channels are showing a marine layer quickly moving westward with broken or overcast low clouds. The associated upper low slides east through today, allowing transient ridging to situate over the Mid-Atlantic by this afternoon. High temperatures will be in the upper 70s (perhaps some lower 80s) well W of the Chesapeake Bay. Closer to the water, temps will struggle to get much higher than the upper 60s or lower 70s due to continued onshore flow and cloudiness. Cannot rule out an isolated shower or storm across our far western counties late this afternoon. The best chance would across the SW after 21z/5 PM. A southern stream shortwave will advance across the Deep South this evening into tonight. Overrunning moisture spreads over the area from W to E late tonight, with increasing chances for showers and isolated storms (PWATs increase to 1.6-1.8"). The tstm potential should be confined mainly W of I-95, removed from the cooler/less stable marine airmass closer to the coast. Relatively mild tonight with lows around 60F, except in the low-mid 50s on the eastern shore. There remains some disagreement among the CAMs as to where the highest coverage and QPF sets up. As of now, HREF probability- matched mean QPF fields highlight the highest QPF W of I-95 and especially in the I-64 corridor NW of RIC. Locally heavy rainfall is likely in spots. This is also where the highest PoPs have been drawn in. WPC has a slight ERO just NW of our wrn CWA line, with a marginal across our W/NW counties. The axis of heavier rain may shift eastward near and after sunrise Saturday, with some signal for heavy rainfall also across srn portions of the area with some elevated instability sliding through. Weak sfc low pressure tracks just S of the area Sat afternoon. While moist WSW flow aloft and deep lift continues over the region in advance of the approaching upper-level system, coverage of rainfall may be hit or miss later Saturday aftn as earlier day rain/convection limits any aftn destabilization. Current thinking is most of the heavier showers and storms stay to our W or SW, though cannot rule out a few storms clipping our SW counties. High temps Sat will remain below normal w/ the onshore flow and are in the 60s N to 70s S. The vast majority of the QPF falls tonight through Saturday and totals of 0.25-0.75" are expected on the eastern shore, 0.75-1.25" over the Northern Neck, 1.25-1.75" across most of central and SE VA, and 2+" well W of I-95 and especially out towards wrn Louisa and Fluvanna counties. After a second look at rainfall totals and collaboration with neighboring offices to our N and W, decided to issue a flood watch for portions of the VA Piedmont. Some heavy rainfall and 1-3" is possible over areas w/ low 3- and 6-hr flash flood guidance (where 3-5" of rain fell earlier this week). SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 325 AM EDT Friday... Key Message: - Dreary weather expected Sunday with scattered light rain and well below normal temperatures. PWATs drop off a bit on Sun as the upper trough axis moves overhead and rain chances will end from north to south later Sun/Sun night. There generally has been a trend towards drier conditions Sun, though it will still be relatively unpleasant with some scattered light rain (highest coverage S), cloudy skies, and highs only the 60s. On the chilly side Sun night w/ lows in the mid 50s. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 325 AM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - Temperatures remain below normal Monday with mostly cloudy skies along the coast. - Dry/sensible weather expected Tuesday and Wednesday with temperatures trending much warmer. Low pressure gradually shifts offshore Monday, though an additional low may develop S of the upper feature offshore. High pressure also nudges south into the Mid-Atlantic. NE flow is still expected (breeziest across southern coastal areas), keeping temperatures below normal. The low levels may dry out some W of I-95, allowing temperatures to warm into the 70s. Upper 60s are expected again along the coast. The majority of the area stays dry with just a slight chc of shower along the coast. Lows Mon night in the 50s with some upper 40s possible well inland. Stacked sfc and upper low meanders offshore of the Carolinas Tuesday before finally being kicked out out to sea Wednesday and Thursday. Dry Tuesday with warmer temps in the mid/upper 70s inland and lower 70s at the coast. The warming trend continues Wed into Thu with 80s making a comeback. Even could see some upper 80s for some areas Thu. There is decent agreement among the global models that a cold front will cross the area later Thursday afternoon. Will have a chc of showers and storms over most of the area. A little cooler behind the front to end the week. Overnight lows will be in the 50s Tue night and 60s for the remainder of the week. AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 700 AM EDT Friday... Low pressure offshore is advecting a marine airmass towards the region early this morning. CIGs at SBY and ORF have been oscillating between MVFR and IFR, with MVFR at PHF. ECG recently went SCT but MVFR may return for a few hrs this morning. MVFR CIGs persist through late morning at the coast, then mainly VFR by this afternoon with E-NE 5-10 kt winds. Scattered to numerous rain showers move in from the W after 00z Sat. Flight restrictions are likely in both CIGs and VSBY, with heavy rain possible. Outlook: A slow moving low pressure system will bring showers, a chance of thunderstorms, and degraded flight conditions Saturday, with at least a chance for showers (and flight restrictions likely) Sunday into early Monday. MARINE... As of 325 AM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - Lingering SCA conditions from waves 4-6 ft over the northern coastal waters today. - Increasing NE wind and waves for the weekend. Small craft advisory conditions are expected once again for the entire marine area. Wind gusts to 20 to 25 kt and seas building to 4 to 7 feet. Weak high pressure is centered inland of the Mid-Atlantic coast early this morning, with low pressure well offshore. A boundary has dropped S along the coast this morning, which resulted in a NE wind of 15-20kt with gusts to ~25kt N of Parramore Is., where seas have also built to 4-6ft. SCAs are in effect through 7 AM N of Parramore Is., and through 7 PM N of Chincoteague. Elsewhere, the wind is generally NE at or below 15kt, with seas 3-4ft S of Parramore Is., and waves in the Bay mainly ~2ft. Low pressure tracks farther away from the coast today as another weak low pressure system slowly approaches from the W tonight into Saturday. Meanwhile, high pressure will remain nearly stationary over New England. The wind will remain NE today and diminish to 5-10kt by later this aftn, before becoming E to SE 5-10kt tonight, then E 10-15kt Saturday. Seas will mainly be 3-4ft tonight into Saturday. Low pressure becomes more organized off the Carolina coast Saturday night into Sunday, before very slowly pulling away from the coast through Monday. Meanwhile, high pressure slowly builds in from the N. A NE wind is expected to range from 15-20kt (strongest for the lower Bay and ocean) with seas building to 4-5ft N and 5-6ft S and 3- 5ft waves in the mouth of the Bay. SCAs are likely during this time period for the lower Bay/ocean, with less confidence of SCA conditions elsewhere. High pressure builds across the Mid-Atlantic coast Tuesday into Wednesday as weak low pressure lingers off the Southeast coast. HYDROLOGY... As of 335 AM EDT Friday... Flood Warnings remain in effect for the Meherrin River near Lawrenceville and Nottoway River near Stony Creek for minor flooding. Levels at Rawlings have dropped below minor flood and the warning was cancelled there. Levels at Lawrenceville and Stony Creek are expected to crest today. See FLSAKQ for additional information. While uncertainty remains with respect to rainfall amounts and exact placement over the weekend, median expected amounts in the 1-3" range could lead to additional flooding concerns this weekend into early next week. AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...Flood Watch from 6 PM EDT this evening through Saturday morning for VAZ048-060-061-066>068-509. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ650. SYNOPSIS...LKB/SW NEAR TERM...SW SHORT TERM...LKB/SW LONG TERM...SW AVIATION...AJB/SW MARINE...AJZ HYDROLOGY... National Weather Service Wakefield VA
654 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024 SYNOPSIS... Low pressure lingers off the Mid Atlantic coast today. Mainly dry conditions prevail through Friday afternoon, but showers and storms return Friday night through the weekend. Dry weather returns early next week. NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 250 AM EDT Thursday... Key Message: - Warmer and mainly dry today with partly sunny skies. Low pressure (~998mb) is currently off the coast of NJ early this morning, with mostly cloudy skies over the area. The low will likely drift SSE today. It appears now that it will be far enough offshore that skies will become partly to mostly sunny by early aftn over all areas except the eastern shore. Drier conditions are expected today behind the departing low pressure system. Temps rise into the upper 60s-mid 70s on the eastern shore with upper 70s-around 80F west of the Bay. There may be just enough lingering moisture for an isolated shower across the eastern shore during the aftn/early evening. In addition, could see a few showers/tstms form over the mountains and move into our far western counties after 20z/4 PM. Any lingering showers or isolated tstms should quickly dissipate by 8-10 PM. Lows tonight will be in the mid 50s inland, with dry wx expected. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 250 AM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - Dry through mid/late aftn Friday, with a few showers/storms possible W of I-95 late in the day. Becoming unsettled with widespread showers and locally heavy rain possible Saturday into Saturday night. - Showers continue on Sunday with high temperatures only in the 60s across much of the area. Shortwave ridging and weak sfc high pressure remain over the area on Friday before moving offshore by Friday evening. The low level flow will be onshore so temps near the coast will not get higher than the lower 70s (and it likely stays in the mid-upper 60s near the Atlantic coast of MD). On the other hand, temps should top out around 80F inland. The next system approaches late on Friday with a few showers (and maybe a tstm) possible in the Piedmont late in the day, though most areas E of I-95 will stay dry until after 00z/8 PM Friday evening. Unsettled wx is expected to prevail from Friday night through much of the weekend. An upper shortwave is progged to slowly track east from the MS River Valley to VA/NC from Sat AM through Sun. At the surface, high pressure will be our NE along/off the New England coast into Atlantic Canada, with sfc low pressure tracking just S of the upper low/trough. The guidance continues to show precipitable water values rising to 1.60-1.80" by Fri night/Sat, with a moist WSW flow aloft and deep lift expected over the region in advance of that upper shortwave. Off and on rain likely continues through much of the weekend before rain chances end from north to south from Sun AM- Sun night. The heaviest rain is expected from Fri night-Sat night, with PWs dropping off a bit on Sun as the upper trough axis moves overhead. With E flow expected on Saturday (becoming NE on Sun), temps will be below average (highs in the mid 60s-mid 70s on Sat with 60s across much of the area on Sun). As such, sfc-based instability will be quite limited after Fri/Fri evening. That said, could still see a rumble of thunder or two across southern portions of the area on Sat, with mainly showers expected by Sunday. WPC currently has a Marginal ERO for Saturday and given the heavy rainfall of the past 24 hrs will need to monitor trends as this will likely lead to additional/continued hydro concerns. At this time, the forecast (through 12z/8 AM Sunday) has 1-2" of areal average QPF, with slightly lower amounts on the eastern shore. LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 250 AM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - Mainly dry weather returns early next week. - Below average temperatures continue on Monday (especially near the coast), with warming temps expected by midweek. High pressure slowly builds toward the area from the NW during the early and middle part of next week. Still relatively cooler (and potentially cloudy with a few showers near the coast) on Monday with continued onshore flow. Dry wx is expected from Mon night through much of Wed as the high builds over the area before moving offshore. There is a chc for some late day convection Wed. Again, highs will stay a bit below avg on Monday, but warm to near to above avg by the middle of the week. AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 625 AM EDT Thursday... It is still VFR at this hour, but a period or two of high-end MVFR CIGs remains possible through the morning at ORF/SBY before prevailing VFR CIGs return by midday. VFR through the period at RIC/ECG. Gusty N winds (to 15-20 kt) are possible from late morning through early evening. There will be the potential for another round of MVFR CIGs at SBY tonight into early Friday, otherwise primarily VFR conditions through tonight (although MVFR is possible late tonight at ORF). Outlook: VFR Friday except at SBY and potentially ORF where MVFR CIGs could persist through the morning. Another low pressure system will bring showers, a chc of tstms, and degraded flight conditions Friday night into Saturday, with at least a chc for showers/tstms on Sunday. MARINE... As of 655 AM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - Marginal SCA winds and seas continue through today. - Lighter winds expected Friday and Saturday. - Extended period of onshore flow likely Sunday and Monday, with elevated winds and seas. 998 mb low pressure is centered off of NJ this morning. Winds are NNW 10-15 kt in the Chesapeake Bay (highest N) and 5-10 kt elsewhere. The low will remain nearly stationary through the rest of this morning before slowly drifting S and weakening later today. There continues to be a downward trend in forecast winds across all near- term model guidance through the next 24 hrs, though winds may touch SCA criteria for a time in the nrn Chesapeake Bay this morning and early aftn (best chance 12-18z/8 AM-2 PM). Will maintain the previous SCA in the middle and upper bay, but it will be extremely marginal and largely sub-SCA. Cancelled the SCA for the lower bay and mouth of the bay w/ the most recent update (cancelled the lower James earlier this morning). N winds become 10-15 kt tonight. NE winds should average ~10 kt Friday and 5-10 kt Friday night into Saturday morning. Sub- SCA easterly winds expected Saturday. Another low pressure system will move near or S of the area Sunday and then looks to meander off of the Carolina coast through early next week. With high pressure over srn New England, NE gradient winds are expected for an extended period from Sat night through at least Monday. At this time, winds look to be in the upper end of the SCA range and highest across the srn half of the marine area. Low-end gales cannot be completely ruled out. Winds look to drop off considerably for Tuesday as high pressure nudges southward into the region. Seas this morning are 3-5 ft S of Parramore Island and 4-6 ft to the N, where SCAs remain in effect. Waves are 1-3 ft in the bay. Seas will continue to trend down today and tonight but remain near 5 ft out 20 nm N of Chincoteague through most of Friday. In terms of headlines, the SCA between Parramore Island and Chincoteague (ANZ652) was adjusted to end at 23z/7 PM today and the SCA N of Chincoteague (ANZ650) continues through 23z/7 PM Friday. 3-4 ft seas are expected everywhere Fri night-Sat night. The increased onshore flow will increase seas considerably to at least 5-7 ft Sunday into Monday. Waves at the mouth of the bay also increase to 4-5 ft, with 2-4 ft elsewhere in the bay. HYDROLOGY... As of 530 AM EDT Thursday... Flood Warnings remain in effect for the Meherrin River near Lawrenceville, Nottoway River near Rawlings, and Nottoway River near Stony Creek for minor flooding. Levels at Rawlings are expected to crest today, with levels at Lawrenceville and Stony Creek cresting tonight-Friday. See FLSAKQ for additional information. AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ630- 631. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Friday for ANZ650. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ652. SYNOPSIS...AJB NEAR TERM...ERI SHORT TERM...ERI/LKB LONG TERM...ERI/LKB AVIATION...ERI MARINE...SW HYDROLOGY... National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1205 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024 SYNOPSIS... Scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms continue today, mainly in the late afternoon and evening. Mainly dry conditions prevail Thursday through Friday afternoon, but showers and storms return Friday night through the weekend. NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1155 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Isolated/widely scattered showers for most of the area this aftn/evening. - Any thunderstorms are likely to stay confined to NE NC and fat southern VA from late aftn into the evening. - Temperatures will struggle to get out of the 60s across the northern 1/2 of the area due to low cloud cover, while it will warm to the upper 70s/ near 80 degrees F along the Albemarle Sound in NE NC. Sfc low pressure has deepened to near 1000 mb and is now located off the MD coast (just to the ESE of Ocean City). A trough aloft is still to our west (over the OH/TN Valley), with SW flow aloft over the local area. Mainly just spotty light showers or drizzle across the region as of the noon hour, with temperatures mostly in the 60s under low clouds. It is into the lower 70s across portions of NE NC with variably cloudy skies, and through the aftn, as the sfc low moves farther offshore, expect to see ML CAPE values to around 500 J/Kg over NE NC and perhaps into far southern VA near the NC border. In addition, we will see cooling temps aloft as the upper trough approaches so additional showers are expected later this aftn and evening, with the highest PoPs over the S. PoPs rise to 40-60% across the S/SW, with 20-40% elsewhere by late aftn. The sfc low will likely linger off the DE/NJ coast tonight, with widespread low cloud cover expected but with mainly dry wx after 10- 11 PM (as lingering showers/tstms dissipate with the loss of daytime heating). Lows generally in the upper 50s-60F. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 315 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Message: - Drying out on Thursday, though clouds and a few spotty showers may persist. Mainly dry Friday. The sfc low will likely linger offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast through a good part of Thursday. A bit of a transition day weatherwise for Thursday. Drier conditions overall in subsidence behind the departing trough, though low clouds may linger near the coast through the morning (and potentially longer on the eastern shore). We should see a decent amount of clearing inland by the later aftn. Temps rise to the upper 60s on the eastern shore with mid 70s W of the Bay (possibly upper 70s across the far SW). There may be just enough instability for an isolated shower inland during the aftn/early evening. Lows Thu night range from the mid 50s- 60F with dry wx expected. Shortwave ridging and weak sfc high pressure briefly move over the area on Friday before moving offshore Friday evening. The flow will be onshore so temps near the coast will not get higher than the lower 70s (and it likely stays in the mid-upper 60s near the Atlantic coast of MD). On the other hand, temps should top out near 80F inland. Another system approaches late on Friday with a few showers (and maybe a tstm) possible in the Piedmont late in the day, though most areas will stay dry until after 00z/8 PM Friday evening. LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 315 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Increasing chances for showers and storms Friday night and especially over the weekend. - Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms are likely from Saturday through Saturday night, with at least scattered showers possible on Sunday. - Dry weather returns early next week. Better rain chances arrive over the weekend as another low pressure system approaches from the WSW. Scattered showers are possible Saturday morning (especially W), with widespread showers and a few thunderstorms likely from Saturday afternoon through Saturday night. Not sure how much severe wx we get, but locally heavy rain/localized flooding is definitely a possibility. PWs will once again rise to 1.7-1.8" on Saturday as the system arrives. In addition, the EPS has a 30-50% chc of at least 1" of rain across the area from Saturday through Saturday night. Lingering showers are possible on the back side of the system on Sunday. Temps remain near seasonal averages late this week into the weekend, and Sunday will likely be the coolest day of the period (it may struggle to get out of the 60s across parts of the area). Mainly dry wx returns early next week with temps warming to slightly above average. AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 620 AM EDT Wednesday... IFR CIGs prevail at all terminals except for ORF/ECG where it is borderline MVFR/IFR. IFR CIGs should prevail through late morning-midday before improving to MVFR at all sites except SBY (which will likely remain IFR through the period). Could even see a period of VFR this aftn at ECG. Drizzle with MVFR VSBYs is possible this morning at RIC/SBY before dissipating. Additional showers are possible this aftn/evening (though they will likely be light), with a slight chc of a tstm at ECG. CIGs fall back to MVFR at all sites this evening-tonight with a period or two of IFR possible at RIC overnight. Outlook: Conditions gradually improve Thursday and Friday (though low clouds may prevail at SBY through much of Thu). Another low pressure system will bring showers, a chc of tstms, and degraded flight conditions Friday night into Saturday, with at least a chc for showers/tstms on Sunday. MARINE... As of 345 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Low pressure tracks through the waters this morning. Small craft advisories remain in effect. - Elevated winds may continue into Thursday as low pressure meanders offshore. Additional SCAs may be necessary. - Lighter winds finally return for Friday/Saturday. Active wx on the marine front this morning with 1005 mb low pressure centered just W of the lower Chesapeake Bay. An area of enhanced winds was observed over the past few hrs w/ several gusts to 35-40 kt. However, winds have decreased some and are generally in the 15- 25 kt w/ gusts to 30 kt. The wind direction has turned southerly S of the NC/VA border, is southeasterly over the srn waters and lower bay, and is easterly across the N. Seas range from 6 ft S to 3 ft N. Waves are elevated in the 3-5 ft range, but should begin dropping off soon. The low will move NE and cross the waters through the rest of this morning. Winds across the nrn waters will become NE and then N this afternoon, and similarly across the srn waters this evening. Small craft advisories remain in effect for all marine zones, though made some tweaks based on recent observational trends of the low moving a little faster. Will drop the Currituck Sound SCA within the hour and will drop the upper rivers and upper bay a little sooner than previously indicated. Elevated seas persist through most of Thursday so have extended the SCA N of Parramore Island through most Thursday where confidence is highest in higher seas persisting. Regarding winds, there is a good deal of uncertainty regarding the positioning of the low offshore tonight into Thursday with a closer low leading to a continuation of the elevated winds. Winds have generally increased compared to the previous cycle and N winds 15-20 kt w/ gusts to 25 kt are now forecast over the most of the marine area (exception being coastal waters S of the NC/VA border, Currituck Sound, and the upper rivers) tonight through most of Thursday. Additional SCAs may need to be issued later today with the highest confidence in the Chesapeake Bay. These winds may keep seas elevated above 5 ft (especially N) and SCAs may require further extensions here. Lighter (~10 kt) northeast or east winds are expected Friday afternoon through Saturday. Seas also likely drop to 3-4 ft. Another low pressure system crosses the area Sunday with winds potentially increasing again. Model guidance differs with respect to the position of the low. The 00z ECMWF solution favors a prolonged period of N-NE flow Sunday through Monday as the low tracks just to our S. The GFS tracks the low to our N, keeping winds mainly southerly. Will lean towards the ECMWF solution in the forecast, but will continue to monitor. HYDROLOGY... As of 1145 AM EDT Wednesday... Have added Flood Warnings for Rawlings and Stony Creek along the Nottoway river for minor flooding expected to begin this evening and lasting into Fri (late Fri/early Sat at Stony Creek). The Flood Warning for Allen Creek near Boydton remains in effect, and that point should fall below flood stage later today. The Meherrin River near Lawrenceville will very likely exceed minor flood stage this evening-tonight, as the Meherrin near South Hill is cresting above 26 ft. Went ahead and issued a Flood Warning for Lawrenceville. TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 400 AM EDT Wednesday... Minor flooding is possible with this morning`s high tide cycle along the southern shore of the tidal Potomac (mainly for Lewisetta) given the elevated easterly winds. Nuisance flooding may extend further S towards Windmill Point and along the Rappahannock. Coastal flood advisories/statements are in effect here through mid- morning. Also, issued a coastal flood advisory a few hrs ago for areas adjacent to the Currituck Sound and Bay Bay in VA Beach given rising water levels. However, recent data shows falling water levels and may be able to cancel the advisory sooner here. AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ630>632- 634-638. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ650-652. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ654. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ656- 658. SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...ERI/LKB SHORT TERM...ERI/LKB LONG TERM...ERI/LKB AVIATION...ERI MARINE...SW HYDROLOGY...AKQ TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1204 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024 SYNOPSIS... Another round of showers returns to the region today, with periods of rain and perhaps a few thunderstorms continuing through Wednesday. Warmer with additional showers and storms late Friday into the weekend. NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1155 AM EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: - Showers continue to overspread the region from SW to NE this aftn, becoming widespread by late aftn/evening. - The heaviest rain is expected from late this afternoon through the first part of tonight before rain tapers off early Wednesday morning. - The highest rainfall totals (1.00-1.50" with localized amounts of 2" or more) are expected to be in south central/SE VA and NE NC, with 0.50"-1.25" in most other locations. The latest wx analysis shows high pressure well offshore with low pressure centered across southern IL/western KY. A closed upper low is tracking across MO with SW flow aloft over the Mid- Atlantic. The sky is mainly cloudy, with some pockets of sunshine over the eastern shore. Temperatures are warmest (in the lower 70s) closer to the coast where it has generally been dry w/ some morning sunshine, and coolest in the piedmont (mid 60s) where there have been scattered showers. The parent sfc low pressure system W of the Appalachians is expected to track slowly to the E into tonight, becoming stacked w/ height underneath the upper low. Meanwhile, secondary sfc low pressure is already beginning to develop across SC/GA, and this will deepen later this aftn into this evening across NC in response to continued height falls aloft. Expect widespread showers by later aftn, spreading to nearly the entire area by 6 PM or so as rather strong mid-level forcing/lift arrives from the SW and PWs climb to 1.5-1.75". We will likely remain on the cool side of the system as a warm front sets up to our south and tries to approach this evening. As a result, there will only be a few hundred J/kg of sfc-based instability...if that which will lead to some locally heavier showers but am not expecting much in the way of thunder. Highs likely don`t rise much from current readings (in the 60s) across portions of the Piedmont, while areas to the east see highs into the mid 70s. QPF amounts through 8 PM are 0.5-0.75" across the Piedmont with lesser amounts near the coast (although coastal areas will see heavier rain tonight). A secondary low continues to track NE along the frontal boundary this evening before moving into NE NC tonight and finally pushing offshore Wed AM. As a result, the heaviest rain is expected between 5 PM and 1 AM along and to the N/NE of the low track. At this time, this would still put the highest QPF (1-1.5" w/ locally higher amounts through tonight) across south central/SE VA and NE NC. QPFs in most other locations are in the 0.5-1.25" range during this timeframe. In addition, cannot rule out a rumble of thunder or two this evening-tonight (mainly over far southern VA and NE NC) as some elevated instability tries to make it into the area. Rain should taper off from SW to NE early Wednesday morning as the deepest moisture (along with the strongest mid/upper forcing) pushes offshore. Temps will fall into the upper 50s-mid 60s tonight with breezy SE winds (gusts to 20-30 mph) developing near the coast just ahead of the deepening secondary low. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 320 AM EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: - Showers linger over the area on Wednesday with cooler temperatures (60s) likely across northern portions of the area and 70s to near 80F in NE NC. - A few thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon across southern VA and NE NC. - Drying out on Thursday, though clouds and a few spotty showers may persist. On Wednesday, the surface low will track NE along or just offshore of the VA coast while the upper low currently over MO becomes an open wave as it tracks from west to east before gradually moving offshore Wed night/early Thu. The sfc low will likely linger offshore of the VA coast through a good part of Thursday. Wednesday will likely be overcast with light rain or drizzle across northern portions of the area with temps holding in the 60s with a N-NE wind while it will warm well into the 70s in extreme SE VA/NE NC with a westerly wind with showers and a few tstms developing during the day as the upper low/trough approaches. It is important to note that there is quite a bit of uncertainty in the forecast for Wednesday especially with respect to temps (which will depend on the exact track of the low). If it is farther south than shown my model consensus (like the NAMNest shows), temps will struggle to get out of the 60s across much of the area. On the other hand, if the farther north and slower ECMWF solution verifies, it will warm into the 70s farther north than expected (with more tstm coverage during the aftn but less in the way of low clouds/light rain/drizzle). Regardless, additional QPFs on Wed are no higher than a few tenths of an inch with locally higher amounts expected in tstms. A bit of a transition day weatherwise for Thursday. Drier conditions overall in subsidence behind the departing trough, though low clouds may linger near the coast through the morning (and potentially longer on the eastern shore). We should see a decent amount of clearing inland by the aftn. Temps rise to ~70F on the eastern shore with mid to upper 70s inland. There may be just enough instability for an isolated shower inland during the aftn/early evening. Highs Thu once again in the mid/upper 70s well inland to lower/mid 70s along the coast. Lows Thu night range from the mid 50s-60F with dry wx expected. LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 320 AM EDT Tuesday... Key Message: - Warm weather is expected late this week with increasing chances for showers and storms later Friday and especially this weekend. Shortwave ridging briefly moves over the area on Friday. Another system approaches late on Friday with a few showers/tstms possible west of I-95 late in the day. Better rain chances arrive over the weekend as another shortwave trough approaches from the SW. While it is still 5 days out, the best chance for showers/tstms appears to be on Saturday (highest coverage likely during the aftn/evening), with lingering showers possible on the back side of the system on Sunday. Temps remain near seasonal averages late this week into the weekend. Drier wx returns early next week with temps warming above average. AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 630 AM EDT Tuesday... VFR conditions continue through the morning but deteriorating conditions are expected later today-tonight as a low pressure system approaches. Showers will overspread the terminals from SW-NE from late morning (at RIC) through the late aftn/evening (near the coast). Clouds lower today as well, with the potential for MVFR CIGs at RIC by late morning-midday, with the remaining sites not experiencing MVFR CIGs until late aftn/evening. CIGs eventually lower to IFR tonight at all of the terminals (w/ LIFR possible after 06z). In addition, the showers could be heavy at times INVOF PHF/ORF/ECG between 00-06z (with a slight chc of a tstm). MVFR VSBYs are expected with brief IFR VSBYs possible in the heavier showers. The wind will mainly be SE-SSE 8-12kt, with gusts up to 20kt possible at PHF/ORF/ECG from late aftn-tonight. Periodic flight restrictions continue Wednesday with scattered showers and potentially a few aftn tstms across srn portions of the CWA. Conditions gradually improve Thursday into Friday. Another low pressure system will bring showers, a chc of tstms, and degraded flight conditions Friday night into Saturday. MARINE... As of 345 AM EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: - A low pressure system brings small craft advisory conditions to most of the local waters from late this afternoon through early Wednesday. - Elevated north of northeast winds potentially linger into Thursday. Elongated high pressure is located offshore of the area this morning. Southerly winds are averaging 10-15 kt. Seas are around 3 ft, with waves 1-2 ft. Earlier small craft advisories for the Chesapeake Bay were allowed to expire and/or cancelled early. Similar wind and wave conditions are expected through the rest of this morning into the early afternoon. Complex sfc low pressure then develops along the Southeast coast later this afternoon, slowly progressing NE and then over the area late tonight into early Wednesday. A tightening pressure gradient ahead of this feature will allow SSE winds to increase to 15-20 kt late this afternoon in the Chesapeake Bay (highest in the srn bay and at the mouth). From this evening into tonight, the low moves closer to the area with SE winds ramping up to ~20 kt in the srn coastal waters and Currituck Sound. A tongue of higher winds (associated w/ enhanced pressure falls) will gradually move northward into the rest of the coastal waters (on the nrn side of the low) into early Wednesday. Small craft advisories have been issued for all of the waters (except the upper rivers) for frequent gusts to 25-30 kt, starting at 20z/4 PM today in the srn bay, 23z/7 PM for the upper bay and lower James, 2z/10 PM for the Currituck Sound and coastal waters S of Cape Charles, and then early Wed morning for the coastal waters N of Cape Charles. Waves in the bay become 2-4 ft tonight. Seas will also increase to 4- 6 ft, potentially up to 7 ft given the onshore flow. However, the relatively brief nature of the elevated easterly winds should prevent the nearshore seas from getting too high. Elevated seas persist longest in the nrn waters, so opted to drag out the current SCA there through early Thursday. Winds then become N-NE for most of the waters Wednesday afternoon through Thursday as the low meanders offshore to our E. Depending on the location of the low, wind speeds will may hover near SCA criteria, so additional headlines may be needed in the future. Much lighter E or SE winds (~10 kt) are forecast Friday and Saturday. Another low pressure system may affect the region Sunday, though winds largely look to remain sub-SCA. AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ630-631. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ632-634. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ638. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Wednesday to 1 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ650-652. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ654. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ656-658. SYNOPSIS...ERI NEAR TERM...ERI/LKB SHORT TERM...ERI LONG TERM...ERI/MAM AVIATION...ERI MARINE...SW National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1206 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024 SYNOPSIS... Dry and warmer today before another round of showers and storms returns to the region Tuesday and Wednesday. Warm with additional showers and storms Friday into the weekend. NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1205 PM EDT Monday... -Key Messages: - Warmer and dry today. - Clouds increase gradually late this afternoon and thicken this evening with precip chances ramping up after midnight. No significant changes at midday, with the forecast largely on track. Increasing mid to high clouds across the I-85 corridor across our SW tier of counties this afternoon. Otherwise, a pleasant afternoon on the way for the local area with high pressure in place along the lower mid-Atlantic coast. High temperatures mostly in the upper 70s with low/mid 70s near the coast. Once again, areas along the Atlantic coast of the Eastern Shore will be cooler with highs in the mid and upper 60s. Dry to start tonight, with increasing clouds as PWs slowly ratchet up and WAA aloft ensues. Rain chances increase rapidly across the SW half of the area after midnight as high pressure translates farther offshore and better slug of overrunning moisture arrives. Early morning lows will be mild in the upper 50s to low 60s with increasing clouds and low-level moisture. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 355 AM EDT Monday... -Key Messages: -Next system moves in Tuesday with showers and a few thunderstorms. Widespread severe weather is not expected. -Showers and thunderstorms linger on Wednesday before moving offshore overnight. PoPs increase from west to east Tuesday morning, spreading to the coast by mid to late afternoon. Weak kinematics and instability argue for little in the way of thunder for most of Tuesday. However, will maintain a thunder chance through the afternoon on Tuesday over SW sections and along the SE coast into later Tuesday evening. Highs may not get out of the 60s across portions of the Piedmont while areas to the east see temps in the low to mid 70s. QPF through Tue night between 3/4" and 1" of additional rainfall, with locally higher totals possible. Best chances for periods of locally heavy rainfall will be across south central and southeast VA into northeast NC Tue night, where secondary low pressure looks to develop Tuesday aftn, lifting a warm front across the region Tuesday evening. Rain briefly tapers off early Wednesday morning, especially across the S/SE, as mid-levels briefly dry out. However, we never really dry out lower levels through this period. This argues for continued overcast/substantial cloud cover and light rain throughout Wednesday, as the closed low to the west opens up and the surface reflection weakens as it crosses the central/southern Appalachians. Precipitation character remains a bit more stratiform through the day for most. However, chances for storms do increase a bit over NE NC and perhaps into Hampton Roads by afternoon as the weakening upper low approaches. This allows for a period of increased deep- layer shear (25-35 kt) along with some decent instability. As high pressure builds to the north, the weakening surface low crosses the area Wed night. Given this timing, Wednesday night would then feature diminishing rain chances and drier air filtering into the region. Kept highs in the 70s for much of the area on Wednesday, with some lower 80s across the SE coast. Lows Wed night in the 50s to near 60. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 355 AM EDT Monday... -Key Messages: -Continued warm late this week with increasing chances for showers and storms later Friday into the weekend. High pressure builds in very briefly on Thursday with low pressure lingering offshore. Warm with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s and a slight chance for isolated afternoon showers and storms. Another system approaches on Friday with another chance for scattered showers and storms. 00z guidance has trended weaker with this system and significant timing differences remain among the global models. Have chance PoPs with thunder across the area on Saturday given the slower timing noted on the latest GFS and Canadian runs. High temps generally in the 70s to low 80s Friday through Sunday. Overnight lows continue around 60 degrees. AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 1205 PM EDT Monday... VFR conditions prevail for 18z TAF period. Winds ~10 kt out of the SSE near the coast and generally S 5-10 kt inland. Mostly sunny/SKC this afternoon, with increasing high clouds through the evening. Showers will also return late tonight/early Tuesday but should remain west of the main terminals through 12z Tuesday. Outlook: Low pressure returns Tuesday into Wednesday bringing showers, periodic flight restrictions, and possibly a few tstms. Conditions gradually improve Thursday into Friday. MARINE... As of 310 AM EDT Monday... Key messages: -SCAs have been issued for the Chesapeake Bay from this evening through early Tuesday morning for a brief period of elevated S to SE winds. -Additional SCAs are likely ahead of a low pressure system Monday Tuesday into Wednesday morning High pressure is centered near the waters early this morning with light E winds and ~3ft. The high gradually shifts offshore today, and winds then increase out of the S-SE (to ~15kt by late aftn) as the pressure gradient tightens on the back side of the high. Confidence in seeing a brief period of low-end SCA conditions on the bay has increased this evening-early Tue AM, and local wind probs now show a 70-90% chc of sustained 18kt winds between 6 PM today-2 AM Tue. Went ahead and issued SCAs for the bay that is in effect from 6 PM through 1-4 AM. S winds briefly diminish to 10-15kt Tuesday AM. However, a low pressure system will approach the area on Tuesday before crossing the area from west to east late Tuesday night/early Wednesday. The pressure gradient will increase ahead of the system by Tue aftn/evening, allowing S winds to increase to around 20kt (and remain elevated through most of Tue night). Local wind probs continue to show an 80-100% chc of 18kt winds on the bay Tue night. Wind gusts are expected to be right around the 25kt threshold on the ocean (and local wind probs for 25kt gusts are only 30-60% for a few hrs Tue night), but seas should build to 5ft by Tue night. Therefore, SCAs appear likely for the bay and ocean (and perhaps the Lower James/Currituck Sound) with this system. Sub-SCA conditions are expected behind the system Wed night-Thursday (w/ N-NE winds near 15kt and seas subsiding to ~4ft). Waves on the bay will be 1- 3ft through most of the period (although 4ft waves are possible Tue night). AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ630-631. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ632-634. SYNOPSIS...MAM/RHR NEAR TERM...MAM/RHR SHORT TERM...MAM/RHR LONG TERM...MAM/RHR AVIATION...RHR/MAM MARINE...ERI National Weather Service Wakefield VA
651 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024 SYNOPSIS... Scattered showers are possible for the Eastern Shore today ahead of an upper trough. Dry and warmer to start the work week before another round of showers and storms returns to the region Tuesday and Wednesday. NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 645 AM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: -Warm and dry for most of the area with plenty of sunshine. -Showers and a few storms are possible across the Eastern Shore ahead of an approaching upper trough. Weak low pressure is noted across western NY with a cold front extending southward into western VA. Another batch of showers with occasional thunder continues to move SE from the DC area toward the Eastern Shore ahead of the upper trough and cold front. Satellite imagery shows some low level clouds draped across the center of the CWA associated with decaying showers moving away into the Atlantic. Will maintain chance PoPs for the MD Eastern Shore as upper heights continue to fall ahead of the trough axis. Recent CAM guidance and lightning network observations support keeping a mention of thunder across the NE third of the area despite unfavorable diurnal timing. Most of the area remains dry today but cooler temps aloft/steeper mid level lapse rates and ascent ahead of the upper trough will allow isolated to scattered showers and storms to reform across the MD Eastern Shore this afternoon. High temps range from the mid 70s near and south of I-64 to the 60s and low 70s for areas to the north. Coastal portions of the Eastern Shore near Ocean City may struggle to warm much above 60 degrees this afternoon with onshore flow and more clouds. Dry tonight with skies clearing out behind the departing trough. Low temps fall into the mid 40s to low 50s. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 AM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: -Dry and warm on Monday. -Next system moves in Tuesday with showers and thunderstorms. Widespread severe weather is not expected. High pressure builds over the region Monday, bringing warmer temperatures and dry conditions. High temps climb back into the 70s to low 80s. Clouds increase late in the afternoon from the SW ahead of our next system. A closed upper low and weak surface low will translate eastward Monday night with lows only in the upper 50s to low 60s under mostly cloudy skies. Rain chances look to hold off until after midnight across the Piedmont. PoPs increase quickly from west to east Tuesday morning as deeper moisture overspreads the area. Showers and storms are likely Tuesday afternoon and evening but limited instability and deep layer shear will keep chances for severe weather low. Highs Tuesday range from the low 70s in the Piedmont to the mid 70s closer to the coast. The heaviest rainfall likely occurs after sunset Tuesday with average QPF ranging from 0.5-1" across the region. Mild overnight with temps in the low to mid 60s. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 330 AM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: -Showers and storms linger on Wednesday before moving offshore overnight. -Continued warm late this week with increasing chances for showers and storms Friday and Saturday. The upper low and surface reflection will be slow to cross the area Wednesday with continued chances for showers and storms. Temperatures will be warm with highs in the 70s to low 80s with overnight lows in the mid 50s to low 60s. High pressure builds in briefly on Thursday but another system approaches on Friday with another chance for scattered showers and storms. High temps remain in the 70s to low 80s on Thursday and Friday with low to mid 80s on Saturday. Overnight lows continue around 60 degrees. AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 645 AM EDT Sunday... VFR conditions will dominate through the 12z TAF period. MVFR and IFR CIGs have been impacting RIC and vicinity early this morning but should mix out over the next hour or two. Will include TEMPO IFR CIGs at RIC through 13z. Additional showers with embedded thunder are noted over the DC region, drifting SE toward SBY. Not confident in thunder chances at the terminal. Will limit mention to -SHRA with MVFR CIGs for now but a few rumbles of thunder are possible at SBY through 14-15z. Additional showers and storms are again possible at SBY this afternoon as the upper trough axis moves through. Light and variable winds outside of convective influences this morning, becoming NW around 10 kt with gusts 15-20 kt by mid to late morning through the afternoon. Clearing skies and VFR conditions are expected tonight with light and variable winds. Outlook: Dry conditions return area-wide on Monday. However, unsettled weather returns Tue-Wed as another low pressure system approaches the FA. MARINE... As of 330 AM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: -Prevailing sub-advisory conditions are expected to persist through Monday -Additional SCAs possible ahead of a low pressure system Monday night and more likely Tuesday into Wednesday morning Low pressure to our north (over PA/NY) will continue to track SE today. SE winds are 10-15kt with gusts to 20kt at this hour, but will turn to the NW today (and remain 10-15kt) as the low to our north drags a front through the area. High pressure returns tonight, allowing winds to become NE at 5-10kt. Winds then increase out of the S-SE on Monday as that high moves well offshore. In fact, a brief period of low-end SCA conditions is possible Monday night, and local wind probs are now showing a 40-60% chc of sustained 18kt winds on the Ches Bay between 7 PM Mon-2 AM Tue. Won`t issue headlines attm as the event appears marginal and it is in the 4th period. Seas subside to to ~3ft today before building back to 4ft by Mon night. S winds briefly diminish to 10-15kt Tuesday AM. However, a low pressure system is progged to approach the area on Tuesday before crossing the area from west to east Tuesday night/early Wednesday. The pressure gradient will increase ahead of the system by Tue aftn/evening, allowing S winds to increase to ~20kt (and remain around 20kt through most of Tue night). Local wind probs show an 80- 100% chc of 18kt winds on the bay Tue night. In addition, seas build to 5ft ahead of the mid-week system. Sub-SCA conditions are expected behind the system Wed night-Thursday (w/ N winds near 15kt and seas subsiding to ~4ft). Waves on the bay will be 1-3ft through most of the period (although 4ft waves are possible Tue night). TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 330 AM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: -Coastal Flood Advisories remain in effect through this morning for all areas adjacent to the middle/upper Chesapeake Bay. -Minor to locally moderate tidal flooding (inundation of 1 to locally 2 feet above ground level in vulnerable areas) is expected during this morning`s high tide in the advisory area. Tidal anomalies have fallen a bit in the lower bay and along the Atlantic coast with the S-SE winds, but remain elevated in the mid/upper Ches Bay. Coastal Flood Advisories continue through this morning from Mathews County north to Lewisetta in addition to the bay side of the MD Eastern Shore. At this time, it looks like Lewisetta/Bishop`s Head stand the best chance of seeing (low-end) moderate flooding early this morning, but confidence is low. A Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect for the upper James River, as water levels in Jamestown appear to be cresting right around minor flood thresholds. Not expecting anything worse than nuisance flooding in the mid/upper bay (with no tidal flooding farther south) over the next few days. AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for MDZ021>024. NC...None. VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for VAZ075>078-085-086-521-522. MARINE...None. SYNOPSIS...RHR NEAR TERM...RHR SHORT TERM...RHR LONG TERM...MAM/RHR AVIATION...RHR MARINE...ERI TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... National Weather Service Wakefield VA
717 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024 SYNOPSIS... Summer-like conditions with daily showers and storms are expected through Thursday, with a cold front expected to push through the region late Thursday through Friday. An upper level trough will keep a chance for showers late Saturday into Sunday, with dry conditions expected Monday. NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 330 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: -Marginal SVR risk today for most of the region (slight risk SW zones) - Hot today with highs in the upper 80s/lower 90s The latest WX analysis indicates sfc low pressure over the upper peninsula of Michigan, with high pressure well off the SE coast, and a lee trough over the local area. Aloft, there are two separate areas of low pressure: one across the Dakotas/nrn rockies, and another near the sfc low over northern Michigan. There is a weak ridge aloft locally, but that will be flattening out later today as the upper trough over Michigan translates E to upstate NY and New England by this evening. It remains mild and dry early this morning with temperatures mostly in the 60s. Partly cloudy, except for the MD eastern shore where some low clouds and fog remain in place through the next few hrs. There is a large scale area of showers/tstms over thr OH Valley that m,may spread a shower to the far towards sunrise but for the most part this will only lead to some additional high clouds. SPC has a Marginal risk for severe for most of the CWA today, with a Slight across the SW zones (from about Farmville to Bertie Co. NC). Shear will be increasing today as the H5 gradient tightens in response to the trough moving from MI to New England. The 0-6km shear this aftn/evening will increase to ~40 kt, and ML CAPE will be 1000-2000 J/Kg (highest over the south). As such, any storms that do develop will have the potential to become severe w/ wind as the primary threat (though mid level lapse rates are modestly steeper than yesterday so some large hail will also be possible). Probably the main reason that most of the CWA is only in a Marginal is due to the lack of a trigger for convection other than a weak lee trough. PoPs this aftn will mostly hold off until late aftn/early evening and will be highest across the south (30-40%), and lowest over the NE (~20%). It will be hot with highs into the upper 80s to lower 90s. The bulk of guidance suggests that the best chc for storms will actually be this evening as a band of slightly steeper mid level lapse rates are progged to push through. PoPs diminish for awhile late in the evening/early thu morning, but then most of the CAMs depict an MCS potentially moving in from the W between 06-12Z Thu morning. Will show PoPs ramping up to 40-50% late. Warm with lows in the mid to upper 60s. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 350 AM EDT Wednesday... While somewhat uncertain given the potential MCS (or remnants) passing through the region Thursday morning, SPC maintains a SLight Risk for Severe across the entire FA. This as the mid level wind field increase further (H5-H7 flow to >50kt), along with the approaching upper trough leading to height falls and provide more widespread forcing for ascent. The timing will be tricky and have enough support for high chc to low-end likely PoPs Thursday morning (this could be one of the relatively rare cases where we see decent tstm activity during the morning hrs). The degree to which this AM shower/storm activity lingers into the late morning/midday hrs Thursday could have impacts on the aftn instability to some extent. However, it is notoriously difficult to time these features (even in the <24 hr timeframe) and the models tend to perform poorly in their development and evolution. Damaging winds and large hail continue to look like the most likely threats from any storm. Given the frontal forcing, it seems probable that storms would eventually grow upscale in a linear or broken line feature, with widespread damaging winds becoming increasingly favored. Low- level hodograph curvature is also somewhat enhanced near the front, though high LCLs would argue against a robust tornado threat. With more clouds around, high temps will be cooler and generally in the upper 70s/lower 80s N to the mid/upper 80s SE. PoPs diminish from W to E Thursday evening, then dry overnight. Turning cooler Thu night with lows in the upper 50s-low 60s. Friday starts off mainly dry, but scattered showers are expected to redevelop as the upper trough swings through and the associated shortwave moves across VA and the Carolinas. There will be limited sfc-based instability but the cold pool aloft could set off some tstms, mainly across the southern 1/2 of the CWA. At this time, severe wx is not expected. Highs on Fri will be cooler, mainly in the lower to mid 70s (upper 70s possible far S). PoPs are highest over the SE (~50%) and lowest over the far W. Drying out Fri night and cooler with lows mid/upper 40s W to the lower 50s E. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 415 AM EDT Wednesday... There remains some uncertainty for the weekend, but overall the model agreement is improved compared to yesterday`s 12Z runs. The main WX maker will be yet another shortwave dropping SE and pushing across the mid Atlantic late Sat through Sunday. This pattern favors increasing clouds Sat aftn, with low chc PoPs pushing into the NW by late aftn, spreading through the region Sat night/early Sunday. The airmass will be cooler and fairly dry so not expecting much QPF with this system (unless the trough and shortwave were to push farther S than any of the guidance currently shows). Will keep ~30% PoPs over the N Sat night into early Sunday, with PoPs only ~10% in NC. The models start to differ more on Sunday, with the deterministic ECMWF the southern outlier regarding the track of the upper trough. The NBM as well as the GFS and Canadian are drier so will only keep PoPs around 20% through Sun aftn over the north. It looks dry from late Sunday through midday Tuesday with some low chc PoPs possible by later Tuesday as the next upper trough approaches from the lower MS/Tn VAlley. Temperatures will be near to slightly below normal Sat-Sun (highs upper 60s to mid 70s), warming a bit by Mon- Tue (highs mid/upper 70s). AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 200 AM EDT Wednesday... Earlier IFR/LIFR on the eastern shore has moved off the coast so all terminals are now VFR. Winds are mostly light SW, and will become WSW at ~10 kt later this morning/aftn. A brief morning shower could affect SBY, but for the most part expect partly sunny and mainly dry conditions through the mid/late aftn period. Widely scattered mainly late afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms develop, with enough of a chc between ~21Z today and 04Z/Thu to include VCTS (lower chance at SBY so did not include it there). IFR VSBYs will be possible in any tstms, along with strong gusty winds. Mainly VFR overnight, but showers/tstms potentially ramp back up in coverage prior to 12Z/Thu. Outlook...Active pattern on Thu with at least a chc for showers/storm all day (even in the morning). Some strong storms will be possible. Drying out from W to E Thu evening, then VFR Fri, but there will be a chc for showers/isolated tstms redeveloping Fri aftn into Fri evening. Mainly dry Sat, but another chc for showers Sat night into Sunday. MARINE... As of 530 AM EDT Wednesday... Surface high pressure remains off the Southeast coast with multiple areas of low pressure over the Plains and another low centered near Michigan. Flow aloft is largely from the SW between a closed low over the northern Plains and ridging over the Gulf of Mexico. Winds are S at 5-10 kt early this morning with waves around 1 foot and seas 2-3 ft. Satellite and surface/buoy observations show improving visibility across the northern coastal waters and the Marine Dense Fog Advisory has been cancelled. Visibility may still fall to 1 to 3 SM at times in patchy fog early this morning. SW winds will generally stay in the 5-10 kt range today ahead of weak lee troughing over inland areas. Guidance is mixed with respect to the potential and coverage of showers and thunderstorms across the waters this afternoon/evening. However, the environment will support strong storms if they are able to form and locally enhanced winds/waves/seas are likely in and near any convection that is able to materialize. Sub-SCA flow continues Thursday and with somewhat greater potential for strong storms (highly dependent on how convection evolves upstream). Flow becomes westerly on Friday as the surface front crosses the region. 00z guidance has come into better agreement showing a period of cold advection/stronger NW winds Friday night into early Saturday. This period may require SCA headlines in subsequent forecasts. The NNW surge looks to be short-lived with SE flow reestablishing for the second half of Saturday. Another front potentially moves through the region on Sunday with winds becoming NW behind the boundary, though currently forecast to stay below SCA thresholds. Waves will generally maintain 1-2 ft through the period but could increase to 2- 3 ft Friday night/early Saturday. Near-shore seas will average 2-3 ft with 3-4 ft more prevalent out near 20 NM. TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 530 AM EDT Wednesday... A combination of high astronomical and flood tides at the mouth of the bay will lead to areas of nuisance to minor coastal flooding on tonight`s high tide cycle. Tidal anomalies remain around 1 foot early this morning with light southerly flow. Water levels along bay-facing portions of the MD Eastern Shore will approach or exceed minor flood thresholds tonight and a Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for these areas. Locations along and adjacent to the tidal Potomac (Lewisetta/Windmill Pt) will approach but fall short of minor flood thresholds. Therefore, a Coastal Flood Statement has been issued for these areas late tonight. Elsewhere, nuisance tidal flooding is possible but not expected to be impactful enough for additional statements. CLIMATE... Record highs for today May 8th: * RIC: 92 (1936) * ORF: 95 (1880) * SBY: 93 (1936) * ECG: 91 (2010) AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EDT Thursday for MDZ021>023. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...LKB/SW LONG TERM...LKB/SW AVIATION...LKB MARINE...RHR TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ CLIMATE...AKQ National Weather Service Wakefield VA
956 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024 SYNOPSIS... Summer-like conditions with daily showers and storms are expected through Thursday, with a cold front expected to push through the region late Thursday through Friday. An upper level trough will keep a chance for showers late Saturday into Sunday, with dry conditions expected Monday. NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 955 AM EDT Tuesday... Late morning WX analysis indicates sfc high pressure well off the east coast, with a weak sfc trough across the local area. Aloft, a strong upper low is spinning over the northern/central high plains, leading to an amplifying upper ridge into the lower OH Valley and central Great Lakes. A nearly zonal flow is in place over the mid-Atlantic with a weak shortwave passing through the area. Earlier fog over the NW has generally dissipated, leaving a broken or overcast low cloud deck over these areas. Expect this to gradually thin out over the next few hrs with increasing sfc heating. Temps have risen into the upper 60s-low 70s (except in the mid 60s where that low cloud deck remains). For today, the FA is in a Marginal SVR risk with the primary threats being wind and hail. Low level lapse rates will be a little steeper today compared to the past few days with the expectation of seeing increasing amts of sun later this morning into the aftn. This will lead to decent instability by aftn as upper level flow becomes NW and the upper ridge W of the Appalachians amplifies. Shear will avg ~30kt. Given the overall weaker forcing, expect the storm coverage to be a bit less but still in the chc range this aftn (mainly 30-40%), with a bit lower coverage (20%) over the SW zones. Latest HREF places the highest coverage of storms in the I-64 corridor, along with a secondary area over the MD Eastern Shore. Thinking is that sea breezes and/or remnant boundaries may serve as the primary focus for shower/storm activity this aftn. The best instability will over the SE (just inland from the coast) this aftn, and this is where there is the best chance of a localized damaging wind gust. Highs will range from the low- mid 80s across most of the region, though temperatures near the coast may drop off by later aftn as the weak sfc pattern allows for some backing of the winds near the coast. Storms should diminish in coverage this evening, with manly dry conditions overnight. There is a decent signal for marine fog along the ern shore and this could affect the entire ern shore later tonight. Warm with lows mainly in the 60s. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 410 AM EDT Tuesday... The pattern remains active Wed-Thu, with a strong upper low shifting E towards the Great Lakes Wed, then slowly dropping SE Thu/Thu night. Both Wed and Thu will be warm and somewhat humid for the time of year (dew pts in the mid/upper 60s during peak heating). SPC has placed the CWA in a a Marginal risk for Wed and a Slight risk for Thu. With that said, Wed will still feature ample instability (ML CAPE to 1000-2000 J/Kg), and decent shear (0-6km bulk shear and increasing shear ~40kt). The limiting factor will be a WSW low level flow that may lead to a limited storm coverage. Hot Wed with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Again the main threat will be wind and hail in any storms that develop, primarily late in the aftn into the evening (actually may see the higher coverage during the evening). For Thu, we will continue to see decent shear, and with decreasing heights aloft as the upper trough moves in from the NW, a higher storm coverage. Some of the CAMs are suggesting some morning shower/tstm activity and this could mess with the aftn instability to some extent. Still, the overall pattern is favorable enough to support the Slight risk as it appears now. Not as warm on Thu with highs mainly in the low 80sW to the upper 80s SE. Showers/storms diminish overnight with drier air moving in from W to E. Slightly cooler with lows in the upper 50s W to low-mid 60s SE. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 420 AM EDT Tuesday... Fri starts off mainly dry, but scattered showers are expected to redevelop as the upper trough swings through and the associated shortwave moves across either VA or the Carolinas. There will be limited sfc-based instability but the cold pool aloft could set off some tstms, mainly across the southern 1/2 of the CWA. Highs on Fri will be cooler, mainly in the lower to mid 70s. The weekend weather pattern remains a bit uncertain as the models show yet another upper trough diving SE from the Great Lakes and passing off the mid-Atlantic coast Sat night through Sunday. The airmass will be cooler and fairly dry but will continue w/ 20-30% PoPs (highest N) for Sat night through early Sun aftn. It looks dry from late Sunday through Monday with seasonable temperatures (highs in the 70s with lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s). AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 700 AM EDT Tuesday... Showers taper off over the ern shore over the next few hrs, though an isolated shower still could affect VA zones over the next few hrs as well. Conditions vary from LIFR in the piedmont (both CIGs and VSBYs) to mostly MVFR across the SE. Expect to see flight restrictions improve to VFR by later morning/early aftn and should remain that way through the aftn outside of scattered aftn/early evening tstms. Have included VCTS in the TAFs from 17/18Z through ~22/23Z. Brief heavy rain (with IFR VSBYs) and gusty winds can be expected in any shower/tstm this aftn. There continues to be a strong signal that a marine layer pushes inland over the Eastern Shore this evening through Wed morning with IFR/LIFR CIGs and fog possible at SBY. Winds remain generally light and variable overnight apart from SW winds 5-10 kt across SE VA/NE NC. Winds become SW 5-10 kt late today, but may shift to the SE near the coast between 18-21Z. Light winds tonight. Outlook...A warmer, more summerlike pattern will prevail Wed through Thu, with chances for storms mainly during the aftn/evening. The highest coverage is expected to be Thursday as a slow moving cold front moves through the area. Mainly VFR Fri, but there will be a chc for showers redeveloping Fri aftn into fri evening. Mainly dry Sat. MARINE... As of 345 AM EDT Tuesday... Quiet conditions early this morning across the local waters. Surface analysis shows high pressure off the SE CONUS with strong low pressure noted over the northern Plains. Winds are generally SW 5-10 kt with waves 1-2 ft in the bay and seas 2-3 ft offshore. A weak front is located north of the local waters and it may sag southward into the northern Ches Bay this afternoon before lifting back northward this evening. High pressure remains anchored well offshore through mid week, resulting in sub-SCA S or SW flow. A series of upper waves will traverse north of the area in the speedy westerly flow aloft through Thursday. These disturbances will bring the chance for showers and thunderstorms, generally favoring the afternoon into the early overnight hours. Locally enhanced winds/waves/seas could accompany the stronger storms. A stronger low late Friday into the first half of the weekend may lead to a stronger frontal passage and the potential for SCA conditions but confidence in strength and timing of the relevant features are low. Waves generally 1-2 ft with seas 2-4 ft through the end of the work week. TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 355 AM EDT Tuesday... Continued ebb tides at the mouth of the bay have resulted in decreasing tidal anomalies across the area (generally less than 1 foot in the mid and upper bay and around 1 foot for the southern bay/lower James gauges). Some nuisance to localized low-end minor flooding (Bishops Head) will be possible with the higher diurnal astronomical tides early Wednesday morning. Guidance suggests borderline minor to low-end moderate tidal flooding is possible across bay-side portions of the MD Eastern Shore early Thursday morning as SW flow combines with increasing astronomical tides as we approach the new moon phase. AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB/SW SHORT TERM...LKB LONG TERM...LKB/TMG AVIATION...LKB MARINE...RHR TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1020 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024 SYNOPSIS... Summer-like conditions are expected through the week. Expect hot and humid conditions as well as daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. There will also be multiple chances for severe weather, especially mid to late week. NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1015 AM EDT Monday... Late this morning, a frontal boundary was located well NW of the CWA. Very mild and humid conditions under a mostly cloudy or cloudy sky were prevailing across the region. Temps were ranging from the upper 60s to mid 70s. Latest radar showed sctd showers moving off the coast. Strong shortwave energy will move through the area later this aftn through this evening, leading to formation of showers and tstms. Continued SSW flow at the sfc will result in warmer high temps across the entire region, and plentiful low level moisture. Despite partly sunny to mostly cloudy conditions, temps will rise into the lower 80s along and E of I-95, and upper 70s to the W and on the Eastern Shore, with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. The latest CAMS show showers and tstms moving into wrn portions of the area between 3-6 pm, then moving ewrd into ern portions of the region between 6-10 pm. Given the moisture profile (PWATs 1.5"-2.0"), heavy rain will be a good bet in heavier showers or storms. This, combined with portions of the area receiving 1-2" of rain in the last couple of days, has justified placement of a marginal ERO over most of VA (W of the Bay) and inland NE NC. There will be no short supply of instability this aftn into this evening, with mean HREF MLCAPE indicating widespread 1000-1500 J/Kg. Thus, a few storms may become strong to severe. However, a lack of shear and meager mid-level lapse rates will limit the threat to isolated damaging winds. The area with the best chance for stronger storms will be in the SE and the peninsulas where instability will be higher and low-level lapse rates look to approach 8.5 C/km. Showers/storms will taper off or end after midnight tonight, lingering the longest over the Eastern Shore. Mild again tonight with lows in the lower to mid 60s. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 355 AM EDT Monday... Key messages: - Unsettled pattern continues through the mid-week period with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms - Will likely have daily chances for strong to severe storms Tues- Thurs Multiple rounds of shortwaves in a varying flow aloft plus a lee trough, will lead to off and on shower/storm chances Tues/Wed. These will likely follow a generally diurnal pattern with the best chances in the aftn through late evening. Increasingly warm conditions are expected with highs generally in the low-mid 80s on Tues and upper 80s to around 90 on Wed. Summer-like heat and humidity will ensure presence of instability. A ridge briefly builds just to the W of the region on Tues, placing the local area in NW flow aloft. There does look to be increasing shear, so cannot rule out severe weather. The SPC has placed areas W of the bay in a marginal risk for Tues. The flow aloft then turns back to the SW Wed and strengthens, which will allow shear to continue to grow. Thus, there is also a marginal risk on Wed. A cold front will move towards the region Thurs as flow aloft further strengthens ahead of a trough. Ahead of the front, (quasi) linear convection is likely to pass through the FA. While there is still some uncertainty, Thurs has the potential for the highest coverage of severe storms this week. LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 355 AM EDT Monday... A cold front and upper trough will push across the region Fri through Fri evening, producing more showers and possibly tstms. Temps will be a bit cooler with highs in the mid-upper 70s. The weekend looks to be considerably drier, but will keep a slight chance of afternoon showers in the forecast for now. Dry air also means lower humidity with dewpoints dropping into the 40s-50s. Temps will be much cooler this weekend. Highs will be in the low 70s Sat and low-mid 70s on Sun. AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 655 AM EDT Monday... Flight conditions vary across the terminals as a warm front pushes further N and light showers start to push offshore. Expect periods of IFR/LIFR across the terminals this morning. CIGs improve to MVFR by mid- late morning and to VFR by the afternoon. Patchy fog may impact RIC this morning, but this should clear up within the next hour or so. More rounds of scattered showers and storms are likely Mon afternoon and evening. Heavy rain may impact vsbys at times. Winds become SW/SSW 5-10 kt today (highest along the coast). Outlook...A warmer, more summerlike pattern returns Tue through Thu, with chances for storms each aftn/evening. MARINE... As of 300 AM EDT Monday... Sfc high pressure (~1025mb) is centered well off the coast of New England/ SE of Nova Scotia early this morning with yesterday`s frontal boundary now N of the local waters. The wind is from the S at 10-15 kt, with seas are ~3 ft, and waves 1-2 ft in the Chesapeake Bay. Overall, a summerlike pattern will prevail through Wed, with a SSE to SW wind averaging ~10 kt with gusts less than 20 kt so outside of any tstms, conditions will be sub- SCA. SW winds look to increase a bit Thursday in advance of an approaching cold front, and could reach SCA by Friday/Friday night as winds turn NW behind the front as some CAA spreads over the region. The models still differ quite a bit with timing and the position/evolution of the storm track Fri into Sat so the forecast remains uncertain during this period. TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 630 AM EDT Monday... Key Message: - All Coastal Flood Advisories have now ended. SSE winds and a higher astronomical tide last evening/early this morning has allowed low-end minor flooding to be realized at Lewisetta, Crisfield, Bishop`s Head, and Cambridge. As for currents at the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay over the next 24 hrs, it will generally be neutral or slightly favoring ebbing per CBOFS output and latest obs. As such, expect tidal departures to drop off by a few tenths of a foot across the mid/upper Bay with no additional flooding later today (aside from localized nuisance flooding). Some nuisance to localized low- end minor flooding (Bishops Head) will still be possible with the higher diurnal astronomical tides early Tuesday morning and again early Wednesday morning. Guidance suggests the high tide cycle early Thursday morning could see a bit more in the way of low-end minor flooding over the mid/upper Bay (mainly due to astronomical tides climbing slightly by late this week as we approach the new moon phase). AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. SYNOPSIS...TMG NEAR TERM...AM/TMG SHORT TERM...AM LONG TERM...AM AVIATION...AM MARINE...LKB/JKP TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ |
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