In today’s write up, I emphasize the fact that our recent weather has been quite “tolerable” across Southeast Virginia. Tolerable as in some cooler days from time to time and no excessive heat. We are looking at tolerable conditions into the future as I will explain below.
Looking at today’s weather conditions in Hampton Roads cities, the temperature was sitting at 77 degrees. The air is a bit muggier with a dew point temperature at 63 degrees. The wind was from the west-northwest at 10 to 15 miles per hour with a low barometric pressure reading of 29.71 inches. The latest surface weather analysis shows a 1001-millibar low pressure system located off the New Jersey coast. Drier air is moving into Southeast Virginia on the backside of this low pressure. This system will meander across the Western North Atlantic over the next couple of days. Conditions will be dry for Friday, 17 May. Moisture begins streaming back into the area on Saturday, 18 May. There have been some considerable differences among the models over the past couple of days as far as timing of rain showers for the upcoming weekend. Some models are showing rain showers moving in as early as Saturday morning, while other models show Saturday evening into Sunday, 19 May. No matter how you slice it, it appears that we will see rain showers for the upcoming weekend. It does not look like all day washouts so there may be some opportunity to get outdoors during dry periods. The wind will increase from the Northeast by Sunday with gusts up to 20 miles per hour as a tighter pressure difference occurs between high pressure to the north and low pressure just off the Carolina coast. The onshore wind, abundance of clouds, and rain showers will keep temperatures slightly cooler than normal both Saturday and Sunday. Conditions remain breezy from the Northeast (onshore wind), but dry out on Monday, 20 May. Temperatures gradually warm into the upper 70s to near 80 degrees by Wednesday, 22 May as low pressure eventually pulls away from the coast and a weak upper-level ridge moves in overhead. As the upper ridge weakens and pushes to the east, a weak cold front arrives into the area by Friday, 24 May allowing for increased chances for showers and embedded thunderstorms. An upper trough digs more deeply into the Mid-Atlantic by Saturday, 25 May which pushes the surface cold front through the area. Looking at longer-range ensemble models, occasional upper troughs are forecast to dig into the area and then lift out resulting in a more progressive weather pattern. The depth of the troughs as well as placement of surface fronts and surface low pressure areas will dictate the sensible weather, specifically who gets wet and where the heaviest rainfall occurs. Models are indicating periods of showers and thunderstorms the last few days of May into early June. Temperatures are not forecast to get too warm with the troughs moving in and out. There is no indication of long-lasting upper ridges building into the area through the last few days of May. Enjoy this weather now because much hotter, more humid days are not that far off into the future. Thank you for subscribing to my newsletter and stay tuned to Spot on Weather for the latest updates!
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I decided to do a write-up today talking about back door weather systems. One of the primary backdoor weather systems that we see in Southeast Virginia this time of year is known as a backdoor cold front.
We just saw a backdoor cold front drop through the Hampton Roads cities just after Noon today. Ahead of the front with only scattered clouds and southwest winds, the high temp reached 82 degrees at 11:50 AM. After frontal passage, the temps dropped to 68 degrees at 1:25 PM, the wind shifted to the Northeast, and low clouds rolled in off the ocean. Looking at the latest visible satellite imagery (see below image), low, thick clouds can be seen right along the coastline of SE Virginia into parts of Hampton Roads. The cooler marine air will influence our weather on Saturday, 04 May with high temps in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees. A warm up occurs on Sunday, 05 May as the front returns north as a warm front and the wind shifts around to a southeasterly direction. There will also be a noticeable increase in low-level moisture as dew points climb into the lower 60s. The biggest question for next week’s weather (Monday, 06 May through Friday, 10 May) will be the location of a frontal boundary. If the boundary stagnates, or stalls out, close to SE Virginia, we will see a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms every day. The precipitation chances especially increase when a wave of low pressure forms and rides along the boundary. The way it looks is for more unsettled weather. Temperatures will be tricky next week dependent on what side of the frontal boundary you are on. If north of the boundary, temps will be cooler with showers and less atmospheric instability. If south of the boundary, temps will be much warmer with a muggier air mass and thunderstorms due to greater atmospheric instability. There really will not be much in the way to push the precipitation away from our area until the 11th-12th of May time period when models project a stronger upper trough to make its way into the Mid-Atlantic. An even stronger upper trough may push through the Mid-Atlantic on the 17th-18th of May time period. I remain a bit skeptical this far out, but longer range ensemble models (both EPS and GEFS) are in generally good agreement showing a change to the upper air pattern with an upper trough over the Eastern U.S. from 11 through 18 May. One thing to keep in mind this time of year, the sun is quite strong which will act to modify cooler temps on short order. Enjoy your weekend! Until next time... Stay tuned for the latest updates from Spot On Weather! The weather across Southeast Virginia is what we would expect as we enter deeper into the spring season. We are seeing more daytime high temps in the 70s and 80s along with overnight low temps in the 60s. One could even argue that our weather is transitioning into summer as the past five days have seen high temps exceeding 80 degrees Fahrenheit (83.7, 87.0, 85.8, 82.1, and 85.2, respectively).
We have also been in a drier than normal stretch of weather with the last measurable day of precipitation back on 25 April (0.09 hundredths of an inch). The heaviest precipitation has remained well off to the west of our area stretching from Texas through Iowa and Illinois. Many days have featured partly to mostly sunny skies across Southeast Virginia. Currently at the surface, high pressure is located off the U.S. Southeast coast. On the backside of high pressure in the Northern Hemisphere, the wind blows from the south allowing for warmer temps. In the middle levels of the atmosphere, a ridge is positioned over the Eastern U.S. Beneath upper ridges, we typically see dry weather with sinking air motion resulting in dry weather conditions. We have reached the time of year when cold fronts have a more difficult time clearing the Mid-Atlantic coast as upper-level winds become weaker and parallel to such fronts. At times, cooler pushes of air can arrive from the North Atlantic Ocean in the form of back door cold fronts, providing a brief relief from the warmer temps. But the majority of the time, we see cold fronts stalling out near the Virginia/North Carolina border. When waves of low pressure form and ride along the stalled fronts, heavier showers occur. After a dry Friday, 03 May and Saturday, 04 May, we will see a slow-moving cold front drape itself across the area late Sunday, 05 May. This stalled front will be the focal point for scattered showers and thunderstorms between Sunday and Friday, 10 May. We will not see rain all day long, but some of the day may become wet. Looking at the longer-range models, we will see the upper-level ridge flatten and break down giving way to upper troughing. This will result in appreciable differences in the weather with cooler temps and more unsettled showery conditions the week of Monday, 13 May through Friday, 17 May across the Mid-Atlantic. On another note, I will begin posting videos again on my Spot On Weather YouTube Channel, https://www.youtube.com/c/SpotOnWeather Be sure to check out my latest weather content including my comprehensive training videos. Stay tuned for the last updates from Spot On Weather! In keeping with the past couple years’ narrative, we are seeing lingering chill well into the spring season across the Southeast Virginia and the Mid-Atlantic. After a chilly Sunday, 21 April with daytime temps only into the upper 40s, today remains quite cool as well with temps into the middle 50s. This morning’s low temperature dropped to 45 degrees making many feel a jacket was a necessary wardrobe item before heading off to work.
Thick, low clouds are the key ingredients this time of year for chilly temps. Incoming solar radiation has a difficult time penetrating through such cloud layers and reaching the surface with minimal surface warming. Just yesterday, we saw incoming solar radiation under 200 watts per square meter. On a sunny day this time of year, that same incoming solar radiation value would sky rocket to around 800 watts per square meter resulting in a much milder day. Low pressure is located off the Mid-Atlantic coastline today. This low will continue to move away from the Mid-Atlantic coastline over the next 24 hours. High pressure briefly builds in for Tuesday, 23 April with more sunshine and milder temps into the 60s. The High then slides off the coastline by early Wednesday morning, 24 April. Meanwhile, a cold front approaches from the northwest. After residing in the warm sector for a majority of the day with high temps into the 70s, this front crosses SE Virginia late Wednesday afternoon along with potential scattered showers. Much cooler air arrives by Thursday morning, 25 April. High temps will be quite cool between 55 and 60 degrees as a 1030-millibar high pressure system sets up off Cape Cod. A warming trend occurs over the upcoming weekend (27 and 28 April) as light south-southwest winds blow into the region and high pressure moves further seaward. Conditions will be dry and mild over the last few days of April in the warm sector ahead of another approaching cold front. This time, the cold front slowly moves into the area or possible stalls out with showers expected to kick off the month of May. It is quite common to see stalled out frontal boundaries across SE Virginia with lots of clouds and periods of rain showers in early May. There is a good chance we see this scenario play out this year as we get into the first full week of May. Stay tuned for the latest updates from Spot On Weather! In today’s write up, I focus on one major question, where’s the front? This time of year during transition between the winter and summer seasons (aka spring), the location of the front matters. Fronts typically stall out anywhere from Northern Virginia to the Virginia/North Carolina border this time of year. If your location is north of the front, temperatures are much cooler with northeasterly (onshore) winds. If your location is south of the front, temperatures are much warmer with southwesterly winds. Factoring into the location of the front, we must also consider the local sea surface temperatures for those of us living along the coast in the Hampton Roads cities of Virginia.
Water temperatures are typically in the upper 50s to lower 60s this time of year. With northeasterly onshore winds, the overlying air mass along the coast takes on the temperature characteristics of the cooler water. With southwesterly offshore winds, water temperatures offshore really do not matter all that much with milder temps more predominant. Large temperature gradients (15 to 20 degrees Fahrenheit) typically set up between cooler coastal cities and inland cities across Virginia with days of onshore northeasterly winds. You can literally get into your car and drive from a coastal city with a temperature of 60 degrees to an inland city about 60 miles away with a temperature of 80 degrees! To add to the cooling effect with onshore northeasterly winds, low stratus clouds thicken and cover a greater portion of the sky along coastal locations. This cloud coverage acts to block out incoming solar radiation with very little change in air temperatures over the course of a day. The extent of these low clouds as shown on satellite imagery usually covers the immediate coastline with rapid clearing further inland. Today, we are seeing a case of cool temps, an overcast thick, low stratus cloud deck, and onshore winds across Hampton Roads cities. Temperatures are struggling to reach the middle 50s as of early this afternoon. As long as the cloud cover remains in place, the temps will not climb all that much. If we see some sunshine and breaks in the clouds, temps will quickly climb out of the 50s. Synoptically, low pressure was located to the east of the Virginia CAPES with high pressure to the north over New England. The flow around both pressure systems was allowing for persistent northeasterly onshore winds. As we progress through the day, an approaching cold front will move in from the west. This will allow for the wind to veer around to a light, southerly direction. A few showers are possible later this afternoon into the evening hours. However, vertical forcing mechanisms will be weak only allowing for very light precipitation amounts (less than 0.10 of an inch). Behind the cold front, the wind shifts around to the north for Saturday, 20 April. High temps will remain cool in the middle to upper 60s as a result for Hampton Roads cities. An additional shot of cooler air arrives late Saturday night into Sunday, 21 April with reinforcing North-Northeasterly winds and cool temps. In fact, high temps may struggle to reach 60 degrees on Sunday for Virginia Beach and Norfolk. There may also be some light showers moving in overnight Sunday night into Monday morning as a storm system passes just to our south off the North Carolina coast. Cool temps continue on Monday, 22 April before we see a brief period of milder temps on Tuesday, 23 April and Wednesday, 24 April ahead of the next approaching cold front and upper-level trough. Showers are possible on Wednesday afternoon ahead of the frontal boundary. Another chilly day will settle in for Thursday, 25 April. The upper trough slowly lifts out of the area by Sunday, 28 April with moderating temps. The next cold front approaches from the north by Tuesday, 30 April with a round of showers. Cool temps linger into the first few days of May along with the potential for stalled out frontal boundaries and increased chances for showers. Stay tuned to Spot on Weather for the latest updates! We are entering the transition season weather period across the Mid-Atlantic. Brief shots of colder air followed by longer duration milder periods is what we expect. Looking at the latest suite of models, the weather will be living up to those expectations over the next 10 to 14 days.
Today, we will be seeing well above normal temperatures across Southeast Virginia with light southerly winds. The normal high temperature for this time of year is 59 degrees Fahrenheit. However, today’s high temperature will be climbing into the upper 70s (nearly 20 degrees Fahrenheit above normal)! The latest morning weather observation for Virginia Beach under a clear sky, the temperature is at 62 degrees, dew point at 48 degrees, a nearly calm wind, and steady barometric pressure at 30.06 inches. High pressure is currently offshore with a cold front to the northwest draped across the Midwest. The cold front slowly move southeastward towards Southeast Virginia over the next 24 hours. We may see some scattered showers late Friday, 15 March preceding the front, but vertical lifting looks rather meager. High temps ahead of the cold front with breezy southwest winds will be near 80 degrees on Friday afternoon (over 20 degrees Fahrenheit above normal). The cold front moves offshore by midday on Saturday, 16 March with cooler air filtering into the region on northerly winds. High temps will only be in the lower 60s (more seasonable and 20 degrees cooler than Friday). Temperatures moderate on Sunday, 17 March (St. Patty’s Day) with highs climbing into the upper 60s. This return to milder temps will be short-lived as a stronger cold front approaches from the northwest. Isolated showers are possible on Monday, 18 March as the front makes its way across the area. Much cooler temps arrive on Tuesday, 19 March with highs only in the lower 50s. Overnight lows will drop into the upper 30s both Tuesday morning, 19 March and Wednesday morning, 20 March. Conditions will be dry and cool from Wednesday, 20 March through Friday, 22 March as high pressure influences the weather across the Mid-Atlantic. An upper trough lifts out of the area next weekend (23 and 24 March) allowing for some milder air to return. This will come with a cost as rain showers will be possible. Some of the models are indicating an area of low pressure moving up and off the Mid-Atlantic Coast which would enhance rainfall rates. Temperatures will be returning to cooler levels between Monday, 25 March and Friday, 29 March. The pattern looks to be quite active with rain chances every few days from 24 to 29 March. Stay tuned to Spot on Weather for the latest updates! We are getting to that time of year when we see a lot of back and forth temperatures. One day, the temps will be cold and we may see high temps only in the upper 40s. The next day or a couple days later, the temps get mild climbing to near 60 degrees. We are now past the climatologically coldest time of the year (January) and are seeing daily average temperatures climb. Additionally, we are seeing longer daylight periods and a higher sun angle.
Today, we are seeing colder temps. As of 1 PM Eastern Time, the temperature was 48 degrees, dew point 28 degrees, low relative humidity at 46 percent, and steady barometric pressure at 30.01 inches. The wind was from the north-northeast at 10 to 15 miles per hour. One of the biggest changes from yesterday is the drier air mass in place as the dew point has dropped from the lower 40s into the upper 20s across Hampton Roads, Virginia. A shield of high, wispy cirrus clouds was streaming overhead from the west. At the surface, weak low pressure was developing to the west across Northern Arkansas. Over the next 12 hours, that area of low pressure will move east-northeastward moving across Southern Virginia. Snow will fall to the north and northwest of the low pressure track across Northern and NW Virginia, while light rain showers will fall across southern Virginia to the south of the low pressure track. Snowfall amounts will be heaviest across Northern Virginia overnight tonight where 3 to 6 inches is likely. High temps drop on Saturday, 17 February into the upper 40s across Hampton Roads cities behind the departing system as it moves offshore. Not much active weather to talk about between Sunday, 18 February and Thursday, 22 February as high pressure influences the weather. With dry conditions, the high temps will be in the middle 50s climbing to near 60 degrees by Thursday, 22 February. Things become more active on Friday, 23 February as an area of low pressure and cold front approach from the west. We could see our next round of rain showers in association with these features with some parts of the Mid-Atlantic seeing another round of wintry precipitation. After next weekend’s system and a period of colder temps, temps moderate by Wednesday, 28 February as an upper ridge builds towards the area from the west. High temps will climb into the 60s to close out the month of February. A strong cold front approaches with an area of moderate to heavy precipitation on Thursday, 29 February. Conditions start off rather chilly on Friday, 01 March as an upper trough digs into the Mid-Atlantic. Overall, I am expecting a back and forth temperature regime over the next 10 days with upper level troughs and ridges moving into and out of the Mid-Atlantic. We will see surface cold fronts passing across the region with colder, Canadian High Pressure building in for about 24 to 36 hours. Then, we will see milder temps as high pressure slides off the coast ahead of the next approaching cold front. A true cycle of rinse and repeat. Stay tuned to Spot on Weather for the latest updates! After a few chilly, breezy days across coastal Virginia, we will be seeing milder temps returning for the upcoming weekend. But that does not necessarily mean that winter is over yet as models are projecting a return to colder than normal temps beyond middle month. If you like a little bit of everything in regard to the weather, then you are in luck.
In the short term, high pressure is forecast to shift off the coast later this afternoon. Once that occurs, light south to southwesterly winds will blow into the area allowing for the beginning of a warming trend. We will see high temps climb into the lower 60s for tomorrow (Friday, 09 FEB). Sunshine will be limited as the sky is expected to be partly to mostly cloudy. Scattered showers are possible on Saturday, 10 February as a weak cold front drops in from the north late in the day. Ahead of the front, high temps will be spring-like into the middle to upper 60s across Hampton Roads cities. The wind behind the front shifts to the north but will be light (5 to 10 mph), indicating weak cold air advection (lack of cold air). The frontal boundary stalls out along the Virginia/North Carolina border on Sunday, 11 February. Additional rain showers will move along the boundary across SE Virginia. By late Monday, 12 February, an area of low pressure forms over Tennessee. The center of the low pressure then works its way East-Northeast over Virginia by Tuesday afternoon, 13 February with a soaking rain over Southeast Virginia. Snow is possible from Northwestern Virginia to Southeastern Pennsylvania. As low pressure moves off the Mid-Atlantic coast, the wind shifts to the north with falling afternoon temps and backside chilly rain. There are model differences as far as timing of the rain. The European shows the majority of the rain falling on Monday, 12 February, while the GFS shows the majority of the rain falling on Tuesday, 13 February. Additionally, the European model has the placement of low pressure further north and east just off the southern New Jersey coast early Tuesday, 13 February. Temperatures will be around 50 degrees on Tuesday morning, falling to the upper 30s by Tuesday evening. By early Wednesday morning, 14 February, it will be breezy and colder with a temperature into the lower 30s. Dry with seasonable temps is expected for Wednesday, 14 February and Thursday, 15 February. An area of low pressure swings through the Mid-Atlantic on Friday, 16 February with an area of rain and snow to the north across Maryland and Pennsylvania. Behind this low pressure area, a reinforcing shot of colder air descends into SE Virginia. There are some differences in the modeling in regard to how cold the air gets from 16 to 18 February. The overnight GFS model is the mildest of the models with the Canadian model the coldest and the European model in between the GFS and the Canadian. Regardless, it appears we will see colder temps setting up the weekend of 16 to 18 February. The temp anomalies will be below normal. It remains to be seen how much below normal. The main question is will we see any precipitation across the Mid-Atlantic during the below normal temperature periods and will that result in wintry precipitation? Attention turns to the 19 to 21 February time period. A potential coastal storm may impact the Mid-Atlantic Region at that time. The latest 06Z GFS shows a strong area of low pressure to the Southeast of the Carolina coast on Monday, 19 February. Meanwhile, the 00Z Canadian model shows cold, dry air in place with no coastal low. The European model is indicating an area of low pressure along the Gulf Coast on Sunday, 18 February. In my opinion, our best shot of a strong storm system will be around the President’s Day holiday (19 February). There will be much colder air upstream to the NW as an area of low pressure develops in the Gulf of Mexico and then moves NE off the Southeast coast. If the northern and southern stream energy merges, we could see a very strong storm system. Overall, the ensemble models continue to show an upper trough and colder than normal temps across the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast through late February into early March so we will see an overall below normal temperature pattern for the majority of that period. But will we see a suppressed storm track or a storm track which moves up the East Coast? Some of the longer-range modeling is indicating cold, dry air coming into the Eastern U.S. from Canada as multiple strong high pressure systems descend into Eastern Canada and New England. The sub-tropical jet stream will be active, but the storm track may very well set up from Texas to Florida with above normal precipitation in those locations and dry air to the north over the Mid-Atlantic. All of the teleconnections are lining up nicely along with a weaker stratospheric polar vortex favoring colder temps, but will the moisture be there? Time will tell. Stay tuned to Spot on Weather for the latest updates! As we flip the calendar to February, one phrase comes to mind for snow lovers across Hampton Roads, Virginia, time is of the essence. From my personal experience, our normal climatological snow window is generally from 20 January to 15 February. Unfortunately, things have not worked out for us this winter to this point. We saw an extremely cold air mass in middle January but weaker storm systems were confined to our north. We then entered a “pseudo-spring season” with three consecutive days in the 70s. Finally, we have a significant storm system that will be to our southeast over the Western North Atlantic Ocean which is going to miss us wide right like a kicker missing the game winning field goal in football.
As a reminder, there are three essential ingredients to get snow during the winter across Hampton Roads, Virginia. Cold temps, moisture, and luck! And we cannot get “too cold” of an air mass. A very cold air mass is usually associated with very strong Arctic High Pressure systems which suppress storms well to our south (no moisture). Ideally, we want a “cold enough” air mass descending from Eastern Canada into the Mid-Atlantic with strong high pressure located to the northwest across the Great Lakes. This will effectively allow for cold air to funnel into the area prior to moisture arriving. Then, we need an “ideal” storm track which is not too close or too far off the coast. If too close, we will see a cold rain. If too far off the coast, we will remain dry (see the 05 and 06 February model data for the most recent example). A storm approaching from the southwest is critical in allowing moisture to overrun the colder air mass at the surface. Some of our biggest snowstorms have occurred in this manner. But you got to have the cold air in place first. So where do we go from here? We will see a strong storm system pass too far to our southeast early next week (05 and 06 February). The wind will be strong from the North-Northeast which will make the air feel quite chilly, but all we get from that storm will be mostly cloudy skies along with the wind. Then, we will see a milder temperature regime set up from Friday, 09 February through Monday, 12 February. Rain showers move in on Tuesday, 13 February as a storm system develops just off the coast along the frontal boundary on Valentine’s Day (Wednesday, 14 February). No snow there either unless the storm track were to take a drastic turn. Temperatures then begin to cool down around 15 February behind the departing storm system. In fact, the ensemble models have been rock solid in showing a colder, stormier weather pattern setting up for middle February and beyond (a snow lover’s dream, right). All of the teleconnections are lining up in a favorable direction for colder temps in the Eastern U.S. just after middle February (-AO, -NAO, -EPO, and +PNA). Then, we will see a weakened, stretched stratospheric polar vortex extending into the Eastern portion of North America in late February. Some of the models are even projecting a possible split of the polar vortex. That could have some significantly cold consequences in late February and early March. The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently in Phase 7, but is forecast to transition to Phase 8 around middle February. That favors colder temps across the Eastern U.S. as well. But time is of the essence. With every passing February day, we will see increasing daylight (later sunsets), and increasing sun angle effectively modifying cold air masses, and the average temps will be on the rise. Many people are getting excited about the upcoming pattern change in middle to late February. But it does us absolutely no good if the storm track is suppressed to south (cold and dry scenario). We need the right timing of features to make it happen as far as storms with cold temps. Time will tell the story. Keep your fingers crossed, say prayers, and hug your cats, or even do a snow dance if you really want snow this winter for Hampton Roads cities. It may take all of these efforts just to make it happen. Stay tuned to Spot on Weather for the latest updates! We have seen quite the change in the weather since this past weekend. I woke up to 20 degree temperatures on Monday morning, 22, January. By Wednesday afternoon, 24 January, the temperature was up to 73 degrees! An incredible 53 degree temperature swing in just over 48 hours! It feels like these crazy temperature swings are becoming the norm during winters anymore.
Currently, we are seeing a spring-like morning across Hampton Roads. The latest weather observation from Virginia Beach shows a temperature of 66 degrees on a day when the average high temperature should be around 49 degrees. What is even more astounding is the dew point coming in at 64 degrees which is more common for early summer. The sky is overcast with low stratus clouds which occasionally produce a sprinkle or light mist. This is not adding up to much in the rain gauge. We may see some steadier showers move in later this evening. The mild air continues again tomorrow (Friday, 26 January). We could actually eclipse 70 degrees on Friday afternoon which is crazy for late January! A cold front brings temperatures down on Saturday, 27 January with highs dropping in the 50s. A soaking rain moves in overnight Saturday night and persists for Sunday across SE Virginia. Temps will be mild on Sunday, 28 January before the wind becomes stronger from the north on Sunday night and Monday, 29 January. Temps will get colder early next week with highs dropping into the 40s and lows dropping into the 30s Monday, 29 January through Wednesday, 31 January. The models have been quite inconsistent regarding temperatures for late next week (Thursday, 01 February and Friday, 02 February). The GFS is advertising a deeper upper trough moving into the Mid-Atlantic which would make things quite cold (high temps only in the lower 40s). Meanwhile, the Canadian model looks milder for late next week and the European model delays the digging upper trough and colder temperatures until Friday, 02 February. Models are probably going to continue changing back and forth until we get closer. The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is in milder Phase 6 right now which is matching up with our milder temperatures. Over time, the forecast calls for MJO to either work towards the null phase (non-impactful) or potentially into Phase 7 (slightly warmer than normal) in early February. We are forecast to see a positive Pacific North American (PNA) pattern next week which would promote troughing over the Eastern U.S. along with colder temperatures. So are there any chances for wintry weather for the Mid-Atlantic before this winter is done? Based on the latest Ensembles, I think we will have a window of opportunity for wintry precipitation between Tuesday, 06 February and Tuesday, 20 February. Both GEFs and EPS ensembles show a better set up with higher than normal upper heights to the north across Eastern Canada and lower than normal upper heights associated with a re-emerging sub-tropical jets stream to the south. The storm track should be more southern and then coastal with moisture overrunning the colder air to the north across the Mid-Atlantic. A lot will depend on the timing of cold air masses with overrunning moisture from the south. At a minimum, I believe we will see potential for mixing rain and snow scenarios for Southeast Virginia. It is way too far out to speculate if we will see snow and any accumulations. Climatologically, we are sitting at a good spot of the winter for snow across Hampton Roads cities. After middle February, things become a little more difficult to reel in a good snowstorm. However, it still can snow as shown by my Top 10 snowstorm list for Norfolk that I shared in last week’s write-up. If you are looking for a good Hampton Roads snowstorm this winter, there is still hope in February! Stay tuned to Spot on Weather for the latest updates! |
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