Happy Monday, Southeast Virginia! It’s all in the details is a common expression when it comes to depicting something very specific. In the atmosphere, this is an especially important phrase when it comes to storms. During the winter, the smallest details not only at the surface but higher aloft (18,000 and 30,000 feet) really make a difference in our weather at the surface. And those details could either result in a complete miss or wintry weather this weekend across SE Virginia.
We were off to quite a cold start this morning to begin the work week as temperatures dropped into the middle to upper 20s over a 2-inch snowpack. Roads were quite icy in spots making for cautious driving. Temperatures have rebounded into the lower to middle 40s this afternoon with lots of sunshine. By tomorrow (Tuesday, 25 January), high pressure will be located offshore with a change in wind direction to the southwest. This will allow for the mildest day of the week with high temps rising into the lower 50s (10 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than today). Don’t get too used to the mild temps, however, as the next arctic cold front will be approaching from the northwest. The arctic cold front moves through the area by Tuesday evening. This will result in a wind shift to the North. Northerly winds become gusty overnight Tuesday night and Wednesday. High temps will only reach the middle 30s on Wednesday, 26 January with wind chills in the 20s all throughout the day so be ready to bundle up. Despite mostly sunny skies on Thursday, 27 January, the high temp only reaches the middle to upper 30s. To summarize, mild on Tuesday followed by cold and dry on Wednesday and Thursday. Now onto the more interesting part of the next seven days. The majority of models show a storm system developing in the Northeastern Gulf of Mexico on Friday, 28 January. Meanwhile, a digging upper level trough is forecast to extend from the Upper Midwest to the Gulf Coast with very cold air. As the storm system moves off the Carolina coast by Friday evening, significant strengthening will begin to take place with wrap around moisture (precipitation) extending back into the Mid-Atlantic. How far west will be crucial to the total precipitation amounts. Rapid strengthening continues with the storm center located just east of the Outer Banks by early Saturday morning, 29 January. Wrap around moisture on the storm’s backside will result in a period of wintry weather across parts of SE Virginia. This may result in a period of heavy wet snow accumulating 1 to 3 inches. It is way too early to speculate on how much wintry precipitation may actually fall across the area. Models have been trending further westward with the storm track increasing the confidence in heavier precipitation for coastal North Carolina, coastal Virginia, working north to Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey. The speed, intensity, and track of the storm system will be paramount in determining how this system impacts the Mid-Atlantic. At this point in time, the European model remains farthest offshore with lighter snow accumulations along the SE Virginia coast. The GFS is closer to the coast with heavier precipitation starting as rain on Friday, 28 January transitioning to snow overnight Friday night into Saturday morning. The GFS Ensemble has an ideal just offshore storm track if you want another round of snow across Hampton Roads cities accumulating to between 3 and 6 inches. Areas from coastal North Carolina northward to New England will need to monitor the forecast closely over the next few days as models attempt to stabilize on a final solution. If the storm were to rapidly intensify and slow in forward speed, parts of the East Coast could have significant impacts with very heavy precipitation. If the storm takes a track farther offshore and moves rather quickly, there may be much less impacts. There remains high uncertainty in the forecast so stay tuned. After the storm moves up the coast into New England, the wind will be quite strong from the north on Saturday, 29 January into Sunday, 30 January. It will be another very cold weekend with high temps between 35 and 40 degrees and overnight low temps in the 20s across Southeast Virginia. It appears milder weather will return to the Eastern U.S. from 01 to 06 February as the persistently deep upper level trough flattens becoming more zonal in nature. This will allow for fast-moving weather systems to pass through the Mid-Atlantic with mainly liquid precipitation. The next winter storm threat occurs between 07 and 09 February with a bit more amplification in both the short and long wave troughs. Stay tuned to Spot On Weather for the latest updates!
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Greetings, Southeast Virginia! What a model whirlwind over the past 24 hours regarding the upcoming winter storm for SE Virginia. If you really want to see snow, it has been an emotional rollercoaster from a solid accumulation to lesser accumulation and back to solid accumulation again. This one of those cases where it’s tricky. It referring to the forecast.
There is something about significant winter storms across SE Virginia including Hampton Roads cities that says, you have to be within 24 hours to really nail down the snow accumulation forecast. Models appeared to be in good agreement just two days ago only to diverge quite significantly yesterday. For example, the GFS model showed 11 inches of snow for SE Virginia two nights ago and then drastically dropped its forecast down to 2 to 3 inches last night only to increase its forecast this morning to between 4 and 6 inches. If there is one model which has been most consistent and deserves recognition, it would have to be the European model. Initially, it was forecasting over one foot of snow for SE Virginia a couple of days ago. It has since reduced snow totals to between 8 and 10 inches. The European model consistency has been remarkable showing significant snowfall accumulations for the past 6 model runs! And now the majority of models are working their solutions closer to the European. It now appears that at least the models are agreeing on the placement of the heaviest snow band over NE North Carolina into SE Virginia for today through Saturday, 22 January where 6 to 8 inches with locally higher amounts to 10 inches appear likely. Heaviest snow will fall over Virginia Beach with lesser amounts to the northwest. Synoptically, an arctic cold front is approaching the area from the northwest this morning. Temperatures were in the middle 50s across Virginia Beach ahead of the front. Rain is located along the leading edge of the front and will be into the area early this afternoon. As arctic air filters in, we are expecting the rain to change over to snow as temps fall into the 30s by early evening. Snow will fall through the early overnight hours resulting in 1 to as much as 2 inches of accumulation. It will take some time for the snow to actually accumulate due to the wet ground, but there will definitely be icy spots on the roads for Friday morning. Overnight lows drop into the upper 20s resulting in a freeze of standing water. Snow kicks back up early Friday afternoon as overrunning moisture approaches from the southwest. As the moisture overruns cold, arctic air at the surface, snow breaks out from North Carolina into SE Virginia making travel hazardous by late afternoon. Snow will pick up in intensity Friday evening into the overnight hours. I am closely watching for potential mesoscale banding to set up over Virginia Beach as we will see a strong north wind blowing down the fetch of the Chesapeake Bay. In mesoscale bands, there could be brief heavy bursts of snow on the order of 1 to 2 inches per hour. Snow winds down on Saturday morning, 23 January. I would not be surprised to see a 6 to 8 inch with locally 10 inches of accumulation across Virginia Beach when all is said and done. Additionally, the high temperatures will be cold hovering only in the 20s and lower 30s both Friday, 21 January and Saturday, 22 January. Overnight lows will drop into teens both Sunday and Monday morning. Beyond this week’s snowstorm, next week looks extremely cold across the Eastern U.S. The European model is showing the “arctic apocalypse” ensuing next Thursday, 27 January when high temperatures may struggle to reach 30 degrees! The GFS is not as cold with high temps in the upper 30s. There is potential for a much stronger coastal storm the weekend of 29 and 30 January which could bring heavy precipitation to a large area of the East Coast. A lot will change between now and then regarding that system. A pattern change is forecast to take place as we head into February as the Eastern U.S. becomes milder and the Western U.S. colder. If you are a winter weather lover, now is the time to enjoy the sights and feel of winter! Stay tuned for the latest updates Good evening, Southeast Virginia. It is a rip-roaring (aka windy) night as an intense storm system passes through the area with rain and gusty East-Southeast winds. Some of the common wind gusts have been in excess of 45 miles per hour occasionally causing the lights to flicker on and off. Over 9,000 people have lost power this evening across Hampton Roads which goes to show the strength of these winds!
Tonight’s storm will move rather quickly toward the Northeast overnight with rain coming to an end by Midnight. The wind will shift to the Southwest and then veer to the West-Northwest as the atmosphere dries out on Monday, 17 January and Tuesday, 18 January. High temperatures will be in the 40s both days to start the week. However, the wind will be quite gusty (over 30 miles per hour) on Monday which will make things feel much colder with wind chills in the 30s. By Wednesday, 20 January, surface high pressure moves off the Mid-Atlantic coast with winds veering around to the southwest. High temperatures will climb into the middle 50s across SE Virginia. Enjoy the mild temps on Wednesday ahead of an approaching arctic cold front. The front moves through the area by midday on Thursday with a drastic wind shift to the North. This will allow temperatures to drop, especially by Thursday evening. We will see some rain showers ahead of the front on Thursday morning with a transition to snow possible as the cold air moves in. We are not expecting any significant accumulations at this time, but we will continue to monitor the situation. Friday will be a frigid day! Northerly winds will range between 15 and 20 miles per hour with gusts in excess of 25 miles per hour with high temperatures in the lower 30s and wind chills in the upper teens to lower 20s. Things become more interesting on Saturday, 22 January with a theme on location, location, location. Location in regard to a potential future storm track next weekend. If the storm is farther offshore to the East-Southeast, we can expect colder temperatures and mainly wintry precipitation. If on the other hand the storm is closer to the coast, we can expect modifying temperatures, wind directed off the water, and the prospect of cold rain. Just yesterday, the majority of operational models showed a more offshore track SE of Hampton Roads with the potential for a significant winter storm on Saturday, 22 January. Today, some of the models are now indicating a closer coastal storm track which could limit any snowfall accumulations. Believe or not, the midday European model showed a suppressed storm track in which all of the precipitation remains well to our southeast, but I imagine that is just a temporary trend and fully expect the next European overnight model run to bring the storm back up the coast. Today’s models are indicating storm development off the Southeast or Mid-Atlantic this Saturday and Sunday. The 12Z European deterministic model is the outlier keeping all of the moisture well offshore to the southeast with no precipitation over land. Meanwhile, the GFS and Canadian models are indicating a stronger coastal storm. The main difference is the Canadian model is indicating wintry precipitation into SE Virginia on Saturday, while the GFS models is indicating precipitation on Sunday. The timing is also a very important consideration for the potential storm. If the storm moves in on Saturday, we have increased odds for wintry weather across Hampton Roads cities since the core of the arctic air will be in place. If the storm moves in on Sunday instead, we could see less impactful wintry precipitation. There are a lot of options on the table ranging from a significant snowstorm, a wintry mix of rain and snow, or a transition from snow to rain. The first option could yield hefty snowfall accumulations for Hampton Roads. The second option and definitely the third option would have much less snow accumulations. Check out my latest weather video on the Spot On Weather YouTube channel https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCfhsRMWBn9yhiyQGDxsYTnA for more detailed explanations. There is going to be a lot of changes between now and the upcoming weekend so stay tuned for updates. After this weekend’s potential storm, the weather pattern will be quite cold, especially the week of 24 to 28 January when high temperatures will be mainly in the 30s with overnight lows in the 20s each day! We will be watching for potential upper air disturbances rotating through the long wave pattern. Sometimes these systems can produce a quick-hitting 1 to 3-inch snow accumulation across SE Virginia during this time of year. Stay tuned for all of the latest weather updates from Spot On Weather! Good evening, Southeast Virginia. In tonight’s weather blog, I am going to focus on a big fish (potential coastal storm) next weekend and ice-cold weather for the Eastern U.S. over the course of the next two weeks. This pattern is really going to make a lot of folks shiver as we will see a direct upper air connection from the arctic to the Mid-Atlantic. I thought about making a special video tonight on the Spot On Weather YouTube channel, but I will hold off for now and instead do this writeup.
Today certainly was a cold day across SE Virginia. Don’t be deceived by the high temperature of 39 degrees as it occurred just after Midnight local time. For the majority of the day, the temperatures were in the lower 30s along with a brisk northerly wind. Definitely a bite in the air over the past 24 hours as a 1035-milliar high pressure system over Eastern Canada funneled very cold air south into the Mid-Atlantic. The sky is clear right now with the temperature at 28 degrees Fahrenheit just shy of 9 PM local time. The wind has subsided and the air mass is very day with a dew point at 17 degrees Fahrenheit. Clouds will move in overnight as a storm system approaches the area from the southwest. Sunday will feature a wet afternoon and evening with rain and very gusty onshore winds. A wind advisory has been issued by the National Weather Service Forecast Office in Wakefield for the period 4 PM Sunday through 1 AM Monday morning with expected wind gusts up to 50 miles per hour, especially along the coast. Overnight on Sunday night, the storm moves to a position over Winchester, Virginia before rapidly advancing to the northeast. Conditions dry out across SE Virginia Monday, 17 January through Wednesday, 19 January as high pressure works its way into the area. Temperatures will be in the 40s on Tuesday, 18 January before warming into the middle 50s on Wednesday, 19 January as high pressure moves off the Mid-Atlantic coast and the wind turns around to the southwest. Enjoy that mild day on Wednesday because the temps come crashing down by late Thursday, 20 January. A strong arctic cold front will move through the area on Thursday afternoon with a wind shift to the north. Ahead of the front, we are expecting rain showers to fall. As the arctic front stalls over the Gulf Stream across the Western Atlantic Ocean on Thursday night, a wave of low pressure develops along it. Precipitation falls in the arctic air on the cold side of the front from Georgia to Virginia late Friday, 21 January and Saturday, 22 January. A significant coastal storm is possible with pressure rapidly falling and heavy snow and wind on Saturday for SE Virginia and Eastern North Carolina. This storm is the big fish in the pond and has the potential to bring accumulating snow across the area. All 3 global models (Canadian, GFS, and European) today are indicating a very similar synoptic set up Friday and Saturday. We will continue to monitor the trends for consistency over the next 3 to 5 days as there will be changes and we are still 6 to 7 days out so the storm is definitely not a guarantee. The potential coastal storm pulls away to the northeast by early Sunday, 23 January and then the bottom drops out. Extremely cold arctic air pours into the Eastern U.S. with a direct connection to the Arctic. Daytime highs may struggle to reach 30 degrees with overnight lows near 20 degrees. These temperatures will be colder if there is a snowpack (highs in the 20s, lows in the teens area wide) on 24 and 25 January. The next arctic wave arrives early on Thursday, 27 January as temperatures plunge again. NOAA Climate Prediction Center 6 to 10 day and 8-to-14-day outlooks show high probability for below normal temperatures across the Eastern U.S. through the end of January. These temperatures may be some of the coldest readings many have felt in the past two to three years. Check out the graphics from the Climate Prediction Center Outlook below. A positive Pacific North American (PNA) pattern, Madden Julian Oscillation Phase 1, and a negative Arctic Oscillation (AO) all seem to be lining up at the coldest time of the year. Furthermore, the La Nina is weakening fairly quickly and local water temps have dropped into the lower 40s which will favor more wintry precipitation. For Southeast Virginia, the timing could not be better if you like cold temps and snow chances as we head into the peak climatological time period for snow chances across Hampton Roads which runs from 20 January to 15 February. Outside of the “potential” big fish (coastal storm) next weekend, we will need to watch for weak upper air disturbances rotating through the cold long-wave trough which could lead to additional snow chance opportunities from 23 January through 29 January. All it takes is some vertical lift in very cold air and snowflakes will fly. We saw multiple weak upper air disturbances last January produce four periods of snow in just one week! Only one of those disturbances on 28 January 2021 produced an accumulating snow (3 inches) for the area. There are other more localized methods to get snow when the air gets very cold, too. I will be watching for potential “bay streamers” during the coldest temperature periods over the next two weeks. What are bay streamers? They occur when very cold air aloft picks up warmth and moisture from the Chesapeake Bay. Cold northerly winds blow over the water and deposit light snow showers downstream over Hampton Roads cities. However, the wind direction must be from the north to get the greatest fetch of moisture. This is really shaping up to be a fun two weeks if you enjoy winter! If the potential continues for a storm next weekend, I will do a special video covering it with detailed analysis soon. We will have to wait and see if the models hang onto that possibility or the storm is suppressed offshore. Either way, it is going to get ice cold so get those warm hats, gloves, scarves, and coats ready to go! Stay tuned for all of the latest weather updates from Spot On Weather! Happy Friday, SE Virginia! In today's blog, I am going to delve into the upcoming storm on Sunday, 16 January and Monday, 17 January and discuss lots of arctic cold air ahead for the Eastern U.S. You could say the Arctic Train will be dropping in for late January.
To begin, let’s take a look at today’s surface weather chart. A strong, rapidly intensifying storm system is located over the Western Atlantic Ocean, while a strong 1040-millibar high pressure system is stretching from Eastern Canada down the Eastern Seaboard. Strong northerly winds are blowing into Southeast Virginia as a result of the cold high-pressure system to the NW and low pressure system to the East. Over the next 24 hours, a new storm system will take shape over the Southern U.S. into Mississippi and Alabama. Meanwhile, the cold high-pressure system to the NW will continue funneling in cold temperatures from New England into the Mid-Atlantic. In fact, high temperatures will only reach the middle to upper 30s on Saturday, 15 January across SE Virginia. Based on how cold the air feels on Saturday, you may be asking, how will we get rain on Sunday, 16 January with such cold temps? It has to do with the storm track as the storm is forecast to make a hard left turn toward Norfolk overnight Sunday night. This track will allow for strong East-Southeast winds to blow into Hampton Roads cities ushering in milder temps by Sunday evening. Heavy rain and wind will be the two primary threats from the storm along the Virginia coast. The farther west you go, heavy snow will be possible in the colder air to the left of the storm track. One foot of snow with locally higher amounts is possible in places such as Roanoke and Charlottesville. The storm system rapidly moves up the coast on Monday, 17 January with the only remnants being a cold west-southwest breeze eventually veering around to the Northwest by Tuesday, 18 January. This will keep high temperatures in the 40s both days. By Wednesday, 19 January, high pressure moves off the East Coast and the wind will turn southwesterly ahead of the next strong arctic cold front. High temps will climb into the lower to middle 50s by Wednesday afternoon. Clouds increase by early Thursday, 20 January ahead of the approaching arctic front. Models are differing on the type of precipitation we could see by late Thursday as the front moves across the area. The European model shows lingering precipitation back into the cold air behind the front resulting in a potential wintry mix for Hampton Roads. Meanwhile, the GFS and Canadian models show light rain showers ahead of the front and drier air behind the front. The arctic train arrives by Friday, 20 January as temperatures and thickness values crash over the area. High temps will only rise into the 30s. After a brief reprieve from the arctic chill, an even stronger arctic air mass arrives by Sunday, 23 January. Bone chilling cold will grip the Eastern U.S from 23 to 25 January. Another shot of arctic air may occur around 28 January. All of the ensemble and operational models are in good agreement with the pattern showing a deep trough and below normal temps setting up over the Eastern U.S. between 21 and 28 January. There may be opportunities for storm systems to form along the East Coast along the leading edge or in between arctic air masses. That will be something to keep an eye on over the next two weeks. In the meantime, grab that heavy coat and get ready to hop aboard the arctic train as it makes its way south with some of the coldest air of the winter season. Stay tuned for the latest updates! Happy Wednesday, Southeast Virginia! As a snow enthusiast living in Southeast Virginia, the past 48 hours of model runs have been very disappointing as a fairly intense storm system takes a track just to the west allowing for milder air to surge north producing rain instead of snow this Sunday, 16 January. Thankfully, it is still January and there is still lots of excitement ahead for the Eastern U.S. including things that make you go brrrr. And where there is cold, there is always hope for snow especially as we head into the climatological time period (late January into early February) to see snow across Hampton Roads cities.
I am sure everyone reading this blog east of the Appalachians is well aware that a big storm is coming this weekend. Before we discuss the storm, let’s talk about the short-term. The weather will be relatively mild for the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday, 13 January with high temps near 50 degrees. A coastal storm forms offshore overnight Thursday night as an upper level trough pivots through the area. Most of the precipitation will remain offshore, but northerly winds on the storm’s backside will allow for colder temps to return by Saturday, 15 January. High temps will only reach the middle 30s (up to 15 degrees Fahrenheit below normal) for Saturday afternoon. Temps drop close to 30 degrees by Sunday morning, 16 January. Being so cold with arctic high pressure to the north, you would think that it is a slam dunk that we will see snow falling across Hampton Roads on Sunday. Unfortunately, that will not be the case. A strengthening storm system will move to a position over coastal South Carolina by late Sunday night, 16 January. As the storm intensifies with a digging trough, it causes higher heights or ridging to occur over the Western Atlantic. Storms take the path of least resistance and do not like ridges. Instead of heading offshore to our southeast, the storm is forecast to take a hard left turn just to the west of Hampton Roads by early Monday morning, 17 January. To the right of the storm track in the warm sector, we will see an increase in southeasterly winds which will allow for a rapid injection of milder air to move into the area with heavy rain. To the left of the storm track in the cold sector, there will be ice changing to all snow in Western Virginia closer to the Appalachians Mountains. It is a classic extra-tropical cyclone dichotomy, warm on the east side and cold on the west side. All models are in good agreement with the projected storm track to the west of Hampton Roads. However, we will need to monitor for any changes between now and Sunday. The higher resolution mesoscale models will provide more specific details tomorrow. By Monday afternoon, the storm will just be a memory as it barrels its way toward Pennsylvania and New York State producing heavy snow just to the west of its track. Even though we may miss out on this particular storm for snow, my mouth dropped looking at today’s medium to longer range ensemble models going through late January. What a winter weather pattern for all you winter weather fans! Rising heights and a highly amplified ridge is forecast to be located along the U.S. West Coast into Western Canada 20 to 26 January. This type of positive Pacific North American pattern will yield some very cold temperatures east of the Rockies for an extended period of time. Additionally, the polar vortex will stretch out descending into Southeastern Canada by the last week of January. And some of the longer range projections are indicating cold to last into the first week of February. If you enjoy winter weather, this could not have come at a better time. And if you have the cold temps, maybe just maybe some upper level energy will kick off a storm system to provide some snow across SE Virginia. Not a guarantee. But the longer we stay locked in a very cold pattern, the probability increases for some winter magic. Disappointed and excited, can I use that in the same sentence? Disappointed that we may miss out on getting a good snowstorm this weekend, but excited about the upcoming pattern at the same time. Lots of fun yet to be revealed. Stay tuned to Spot On Weather for the latest updates! Happy Tuesday, Southeast Virginia! In today’s blog, the phrase, “devil in the details” comes to mind as we watch the potential for a winter storm to affect the area this upcoming weekend. It will literally come down to specific, more detailed information that will determine whether we see a cold rain, a mix of rain and snow, or accumulating snow across the area.
Before I get to this weekend’s storm system, I am going to focus on the short term. It is a very cold winter day across SE Virginia today. With a normal high temperature of 50 degrees, we will be well below average (15 to 20 degrees Fahrenheit) with high temps struggling to reach the middle 30s despite partly sunny skies. There will be cold air stratocumulus clouds (bay streamers) closer to the coast. As Arctic High Pressure settles into the area overnight, temps will drop into the lower 20s for Hampton Roads cities. There will be teens further inland away from the water. This will be our coldest night of the winter so far. As High Pressure moves offshore by early Wednesday morning, 12 January, the wind shifts to the southwest. This will result in temperature moderation with daytime highs in the middle to upper 40s on Wednesday afternoon. Due to the dry air in place, temps fall into the lower to middle 30s by sunrise on Thursday morning, 13 January. Clouds increase on Thursday, 13 January as the next cold front drops into the area. Some of the models are showing scattered rain showers but these will be brief in nature. Cold northerly winds kick in on Friday, 14 January as a coastal low develops well offshore. The Mid-Atlantic will be situated between a strong 1040-millibar high pressure system over Eastern Canada and a strong 996-millibar low pressure system over the Western North Atlantic. The pressure difference between these two systems will generate an increase in the wind from a northerly direction. Conditions remain cold overnight Friday night as lows fall into the upper 20s. As we move into the upcoming weekend, there is the potential for a winter storm and the devil is in the details. I have seen many coastal winter storms impact Hampton Roads cities and here are some of my observations. First, the models are going to be all over the place between now and up to 36 hours out from the storm itself. The models are already exhibiting large swings in the storm track which will have huge implications on our sensible weather. Second, the wind direction will determine what type of precipitation we see in Hampton Roads (cold rain, mix of rain and snow, all snow). A more Northerly wind component results in frozen precipitation, while a Northeasterly wind component results in a mix of rain and snow. I have rarely seen all snow. Some of the biggest past winter storms briefly start as rain, then transition to heavy wet snow. The ultimate death blow for winter weather fans in Hampton Roads is an Easterly wind off the water which would result in temperatures being too warm for snow while pushing the rain/snow line further inland away from the coast. Next, the strength of the storm really makes a difference. A weaker storm system will most likely result in a flatter wave which does not come up the coast and instead pushes out to sea with increased probability of frozen precipitation. A stronger storm system will most likely move up the coast with the rain/snow line pushing inland away from the coast. Finally, the position of the cold High to the North over Eastern Canada means everything. If the cold high is too far east, the storm will move up the coast and we will see more maritime influence in our temps resulting in strong winds off the water and a cold rain. If the cold high is positioned to the northwest of the storm, then we will have cold air funneling into our area increasing the probability for frozen precipitation even to the coast. The latest summary from the overnight/early morning model runs is as follows: The GFS model is showing a more intense storm system with the track moving up the coast, the Canadian model is showing a more southerly track from the Carolinas out to sea, and the European model is showing the farthest south track from Georgia/South Carolina out to sea. Based on the GFS forecast track, we would get the majority of our precipitation as a cold rain as the center of the 987-millibar storm center moves right over the top of Hampton Roads. We could potentially shift over to a mix of rain and snow or all snow as the storm pulls away with light accumulations. Based on the Canadian forecast track, the 983-millibar storm center moves off the North Carolina/South Carolina border and out to sea with SE Virginia remaining on the colder northwest side of the storm. A mix of rain and snow is the most likely outcome based on the Canadian. Lastly, all precipitation remains south of our area with the latest European forecast track and we would simply experience gusty winds and that is about it. Of course, all of this will be different by the time you read today’s blog as the models will change later today. Overall, there are a lot of moving parts with the weekend storm system. Right now based off the latest model guidance, I could see three possibilities occurring this weekend. First, the storm is really intense allowing for a more coastal track and more wind off the water with a predominately heavy cold rain. Second, the storm comes offshore the Carolinas with a rain/snow mix changing to all snow as the storm pulls away. Third, the storm remains south of our area with no precipitation. In the third scenario, places like the Carolinas would get the precipitation. Looking longer range beyond this weekend’s potential storm, the GEFS and EPS Ensemble models continue to advertise colder temps and a trough over the Eastern U.S. which may lead to additional winter storms. It should be an interesting time ahead! Stay tuned to Spot On Weather for the latest updates! Good Afternoon, Southeast Virginia! In today’s blog, I will discuss a cold week ahead with a persistent upper trough in place along with predominant northerly surface winds. Will the cold and northerly winds precede a winter storm for Southeast Virginia late this weekend? It is possible. Let me explain.
If you are a fan of winter weather along the Eastern Seaboard, the next 7 to 10 days are looking like we will hit the proverbial jackpot with plenty of cold air (troughs) and upper air disturbances rotating into the area. It seems everything is destined to come together at just the right time between now and 20 January. Setting the stage is very important prior to a winter weather event for SE Virginia. What a difference 24 hours makes! Today’s temperatures have struggled to reach 41 degrees after yesterday’s high temps in the middle to upper 60s across SE Virginia. A strong cold front has moved offshore this morning with cold northerly winds blowing into the region. If you think this is cold, just wait until tomorrow! A secondary, stronger surge of cold air moves in overnight tonight really dropping the temps! Despite sunshine, the high temperature on Tuesday, 11 January may only reach the freezing point (32 degrees Fahrenheit)! Brrrrrrrr… Arctic High Pressure settles overhead by Tuesday night. This will allow for a relaxed pressure gradient and lighter winds. With longer darkness hours and ideal radiation cooling, temps will fall into the lower 20s by sunrise on Wednesday morning. Get the scrapers ready! As High Pressure moves off the coast, the wind becomes southwesterly with milder temps into the middle to upper 40s by Wednesday afternoon. To get some of the biggest snowstorms for Coastal Virginia, there are specific “setting the stage” requirements prior to a potential winter storm. First, we need to see cold temperatures in place for an extended period of time. Some of the biggest past winter storms have seen a prior 3 to 5 day period in which temperatures were below normal (refer to the January 2018 Mid-Atlantic blizzard). Strong High Pressure over the Upper Midwest into Eastern Canada funnels colder air into the region with persistent northerly winds. Check. Second, the local water temperatures must be cold enough to support wintry precipitation vice liquid. The latest NOAA Operational Forecasting System (OFS) is showing local water temps falling to around 41 degrees by this Wednesday, 12 January. Check. Third, we need a storm track to our south that is not too close to the coast. Especially important is the location of the upper level disturbance at 18,000 feet remaining to our south providing an efficient lifting mechanism. Check. With the right storm track, surface temperatures remain cold enough with a more north-northwesterly surface wind and moisture from the Western Atlantic getting ingested and lifted into the vertical. An area sometimes referred to as the frontogenetic band (sweet spot for heaviest snow). At this time, it appears all of those factors are coming together. We will see a major coastal bomb cyclone develop over the Western Atlantic late this week. Although it will not have any direct precipitation impacts on SE Virginia, it will funnel in colder temps on its backside preventing a warm up. Additionally, strong 1040-millibar High Pressure will be situated over Eastern Canada. This will funnel in cold, dry air from the north. Meanwhile, an upper level disturbance will pivot from the Dakotas into the Carolinas following the long wave trough (polar jet stream) between Friday, 14 January and Sunday, 16 January. There is excellent agreement between the European, GFS, and Canadian models this afternoon showing the storm tracking to our south with snow falling across SE Virginia in the Saturday, 15 January to Sunday, 16 January time period. The ground will be much colder than the previous storm which would allow for more rapid accumulation. The latest snow forecast from the models shows 3 inches from the European model and 4 inches from the Canadian model for Hampton Roads cities. I am not buying into the latest GFS model which miraculously vanishes the snow shield on the storm’s north-northwest side. I do not see a lot of dry air per the latest upper air forecast soundings to back such rapidly evaporating moisture. One thing to keep in mind is the models will definitely change between now and this weekend. All I can say right now based off latest guidance is the pattern is looking very favorable for a winter storm in the Mid-Atlantic this upcoming weekend. I have observed weather for SE Virginia and have taken notice of past winter storms and the upper air pattern that favors such winter storms. In fact, I just recently shared some graphics comparing this upcoming week’s colder pattern to the early January 2018 pattern. We were locked into cold air for 3 to 4 days prior to getting a major snowstorm across Southeast Virginia. Hampton Roads cities received nearly 8 inches of snow with a blizzard warning in effect on 04 January 2018. That was quite a storm and current guidance is looking quite similar now. On Tuesday, 18 January and Wednesday, 19 January, the next storm system moves just off the Mid-Atlantic coast. The forecast track for that system is not as favorable for frozen precipitation across Hampton Roads. Of course, there is a lot of time for that change between now and then. We are setting the stage for a potential winter storm this upcoming weekend and it appears that things are coming together quite nicely. At least for today. Stay tuned to Spot On Weather for the latest updates! Good evening, Southeast Virginia. As I type tonight’s blog, I am hearing the first raindrops falling on the window. These raindrops signify a change from mild to much colder temps for the area. The overall weather pattern looks quite intriguing over the next two weeks for the Eastern U.S. with potential multiple shots of arctic air and winter storms.
I am always amazed how the temps can swing so drastically from cold to mild and back to cold again across SE Virginia. I have never lived in a place with such drastic weather changes. It is as if someone is flipping a switch. The main cause of such major temperature swings comes down to the wind direction. When we see a strong North-Northwest wind in January, temps crash to the colder side. When we see a strong South-Southwest wind in January, the temps rebound on short order to milder temps. Today was one of those mild days with gusty Southwest winds ahead of an approaching cold front. The latest evening radar image shows an area of rain along the leading edge of an arctic air mass moving into the area. After high temps in the 60s today, we are going to wake up tomorrow morning and think we are living on a different, much colder planet. The cold front pushes through around Midnight with an abrupt wind shift to the North. These Northerly winds will be quite gusty on Monday morning ushering in the arctic air. Temps crash overnight from the lower 50s into the upper 30s by sunrise. A 1038-millibar High Pressure system will be located over Illinois on Monday, 10 January. When we are on the eastern side of high pressure, the wind is from the north with colder temps. Despite clearing conditions by Monday afternoon, high temps will only reach the upper 30s across SE Virginia. As High Pressure builds into the Mid-Atlantic, the pressure gradient and wind relax resulting in a very cold Monday night/Tuesday morning for Hampton Roads cities where low temps will drop into the 20s. It will be a very cold day on Tuesday, 11 January with high temps only in the lower to middle 30s. An extension of the polar vortex will stretch from the arctic through New England and the Mid-Atlantic with much below normal temps (15 to 20 degrees Fahrenheit below normal). High pressure moves offshore on Wednesday, 12 January with a brief moderation in temps. The next upper-level trough will be located upstream over the Upper Midwest and Ohio Valley. The wind shifts to the north on Thursday, 13 January as a coastal storm develops well offshore. Even though we are not expected to see any direct precipitation impacts from the coastal storm, the gradient will tighten with increasing northerly winds and continued cold temps. After a daytime high in the upper 40s on Wednesday, high temps drop into the lower to middle 40s on Thursday, 13 January. With an upper-level trough in place behind the departing storm over the North Atlantic, things look quite interesting next weekend. The midday European model is showing a strong storm system moving through the area resulting in heavy precipitation and gusty winds. There is a lot of uncertainty regarding precipitation type and storm track at this time for next Sunday, 16 January. If the trough is deeper with colder temps, then there is a good possibility we may see wintry weather for the Mid-Atlantic. The latest ensemble forecasts are indicating a persistent upper-level trough and below normal temps between now and 25 January. In fact, the latest Climate Prediction Center 10 to 14-day temperature and precipitation outlook shows below normal temps with above normal precipitation over the East Coast. Medium to longer range models are indicating additional storm threats beyond the upcoming weekend into the third week of January. Looking at the latest teleconnections, the Pacific North American (PNA) is forecast to turn positive by middle January, the Eastern Pacific Oscillation (EPO) is forecast to be negative, while the polar vortex will remain elongated sending occasional shots of arctic air into the United States. If you enjoy winter weather, you will enjoy the upcoming weather pattern with its occasional shots of cold air along with multiple storm threats. Lots of intrigue Stay tuned for the latest weather updates from Spot On Weather! Good Afternoon, Southeast Virginia! As a fan of winter weather and dogs, I absolutely love to use the expression, “Release the Arctic Hounds” when it is appropriate during the winter season. In today’s blog, we definitely need to discuss the prospect of arctic air invading the Eastern U.S.
The first wave of arctic air has arrived today. The latest weather observation in Virginia Beach under a mostly cloudy sky, temperature 36 degrees, Dew point 27.5 degrees, relative humidity 71 percent, gusty NW winds up to 30 mph, and rising barometric pressure at 30.04 inches. On today’s surface weather chart, a 1031-millibar High is located over Central Illinois with cold air advection on its front side into the Mid-Atlantic. Meanwhile, a departing storm system was off the coast of New England producing snow from Rhode Island to Maine. Over the next 24 hours, surface high pressure slides southeastward towards Virginia. As a result, the wind will be decreasing this evening across SE Virginia as the pressure gradient relaxes. Due to the decreasing wind and long January night, we will see excellent radiation cooling overnight tonight with low temps dropping into the 20s area-wide by early Saturday morning. As high pressure settles directly overhead, we will see lots of sunshine on Saturday, 08 January. Despite the sunshine, high temps will only climb into the middle to upper 30s. High pressure slides off the East Coast by early Sunday morning, 09 January with the wind veering to the southwest. These southwest winds will allow for a brief period of milder temps on Sunday afternoon. High temps will rise to near 60 degrees ahead of the next shot of arctic air. The second wave of arctic air arrives into the area by early Monday morning, 10 January. We will see a period of rain ahead of the cold front. Much colder air filters into the region behind the departing front by early Monday afternoon. Yet another strong 1038-millibar high pressure builds in from the Ohio Valley by late Tuesday, 11 January. High temps on Tuesday will only reach the lower to middle 30s across SE Virginia. Cold air hangs tough down the Eastern Seaboard from New England to the Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday, 12 January and early Thursday, 13 January with only a slight moderation in temperatures into the 40s. High pressure finally moves into the NW Atlantic as the upper trough lifts to the Northeast being temporarily replaced by more zonal west to east upper level winds on Friday, 14 January. This will allow for high temps to rise into the lower to middle 50s. Remaining mild with rain moving in on Saturday, 15 January as a storm system moves from Oklahoma to Western Pennsylvania. We will be located in the warm sector ahead of a cold front. Colder air re-loads to the Northwest over the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest eventually working its way to the East Coast on Sunday, 16 January. Cold and windy on Monday, 17 January as high temps fall into the 40s. A 1033-millbar High Pressure system will move into Northern Virginia early Tuesday, 18 January with decreasing winds. The next cold front moves through the area by early Thursday, 20 January with a round of rain showers. Meanwhile, a coastal storm develops just offshore the Southeast U.S. coast. The upper trough deepens over the East on Friday, 21 January as an extension of the elongated polar vortex pivots close to Michigan. A bitterly cold period is possible on 22 and 23 January along with some wintry precipitation along an arctic front. The latest ensemble models are in general agreement with the deterministic models showing an upper trough stretching from Canada into the Midwest and Eastern U.S. as we head into late January. We will see a brief reprieve to somewhat milder conditions from 14 to 17 January before the reloading arctic cold returns. Release the Arctic Hounds Stay tuned to Spot On Weather for the latest updates! |
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